Rainfall will be below normal in July: IMD

Rainfall Will Be Below Normal in July: IMD

UPSC Prelims + Mains Study Note | Topic: Indian Monsoon, El Niño, IMD Forecasting

1. At a Glance

• India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast (July 2026) warns of below-normal rainfall for July, the peak month of the southwest monsoon season (June–September). [S1]
• El Niño conditions are developing over the Central Pacific during the 2026 monsoon season, historically correlated with deficient southwest monsoon rainfall in India. [S1][S2]
• Kharif crop sowing is already delayed — area under Kharif has declined ~22% compared to the same period last year — with paddy farmers awaiting adequate showers. [S4]
• UPSC relevance: Intersects GS-I (Geography/Monsoon), GS-III (Agriculture, Disaster Management), and GS-III (Environment/Climate Change).

2. Why in the News

• July 1, 2026: IMD issued a monthly rainfall outlook warning of below-normal rainfall in July 2026 — the meteorologically most critical month of the southwest monsoon. [S4]
• IMD had already lowered its seasonal forecast (June–September 2026) to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the threshold boundary of "below normal." [S1]
• The forecast follows warnings by global meteorologists of a potential "Super El Niño" year in 2026, raising concerns about drought, food security, and reservoir levels. [S2][S4]
• Central Water Commission (CWC) data (June 25, 2026): Key reservoirs hold about 25% less water than June 2025, though 5% above the 10-year average. [S4]

3. Background & Evolution

• Southwest Monsoon (SWM): A seasonal wind system originating from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal; arrives in Kerala around June 1 and covers India by July 15; accounts for ~75% of India's annual rainfall.
• IMD Long Range Forecast (LRF) system: IMD issues a two-stage LRF — April (Stage 1) and May/June (updated Stage 2) — for the June–September season, expressed as % of LPA. [S1]
• Long Period Average (LPA): 88 cm for the country as a whole (1971–2020 base period, revised periodically by IMD).
• IMD rainfall classification:
• Above Normal: >104% LPA
• Normal: 96–104% LPA
• Below Normal: 90–95% LPA
• Deficient: <90% LPA
• Excess: >110% LPA
• El Niño-Monsoon linkage: Studied since the late 19th century; formalised in Indian forecasting models through the MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System), developed under the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) launched in 2012 by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES). [S3]
• Historical precedent: 6 in 10 El Niño years translate to weak southwest monsoon in India. [S4]

4. Core Static Facts

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Economic

• Below-normal July rainfall risks kharif crop failure, particularly for paddy, maize, pulses — affecting farmers across rain-fed agriculture zones. [S2][S4]
• ~60% of Indian farmers depend on monsoon rainfall for the kharif season; deficit translates to income shocks and rural demand contraction. [S2]
• Hydropower generation and drinking water availability in cities served by major reservoirs (Bhakra, Sardar Sarovar, Hirakud) are at risk.
• Food inflation pressure likely if kharif output declines; RBI's monetary stance may be affected via food CPI.

Environmental

• El Niño — driven by warming of Central Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) — suppresses convective activity over the Indian subcontinent, weakening moisture-laden winds.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Positive IOD (warmer western Indian Ocean relative to eastern) can partially compensate for El Niño; neutral IOD in 2026 offers no such buffer. [S4]
• Historical exception: 1997–98 El Niño (one of the strongest on record) still saw 2% above-normal rainfall in India due to a strongly positive IOD — but IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra notes "that has happened only once ever." [S4]
• Reservoir deficit raises concerns about groundwater depletion, wetland drying, and stress on biodiversity in river-dependent ecosystems.

Agricultural / Food Security

• Kharif sowing decline of 22% by July 1, 2026 signals delayed transplanting of paddy — a highly water-intensive crop. [S4]
• Deficient rains in July could push farmers toward shorter-duration drought-resistant varieties or force crop substitution.
• FAO and global bodies classify India as a food-secure country with strategic grain reserves; however, a severe deficit year tests the Public Distribution System (PDS) buffer stock norms.

Scientific / Technological

• IMD uses the MMCFS and the Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) for seasonal prediction. [S1]
• Australian Bureau of Meteorology models have offered divergent IOD outlooks (positive phase possible), while IMD's own models project neutral IOD — illustrating limits of current seasonal forecast skill. [S4]
• Super El Niño terminology: Refers to an exceptionally strong El Niño event; the warming peak in the Central Pacific is expected to surface in winter 2026–27, after the SWM ends — meaning its full force arrives too late to be counterbalanced by late-season IOD. [S4]

Administrative

• Ministry of Agriculture monitors kharif sowing data and may trigger crop insurance payouts under PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana) if area or yield thresholds are breached.
• Central Water Commission (CWC) provides weekly reservoir storage bulletins — a key decision-making tool for irrigation planning and drought declaration. [S4]
• NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority) under MHA coordinates drought response; drought declaration follows criteria under the Manual for Drought Management (2016).

6. Recent Developments (Last 12–18 Months)

• April–May 2026: IMD issued Stage 1 LRF predicting below-normal seasonal rainfall at 90% of LPA; updated Stage 2 forecast in late May 2026 maintained the projection. [S1]
• May 29, 2026: PIB press release confirmed El Niño conditions likely to develop during the SWM season; probability of deficient season raised to 35%. [S1][S2]
• June 2026: IMD forecast June monthly rainfall to be below normal (<92% LPA); actual deficit materialised, delaying crop sowing. [S1][S4]
• June 25, 2026: CWC data showed reservoir levels 25% below June 2025 levels. [S4]
• July 1, 2026: IMD warned of below-normal July rainfall; Agriculture Ministry confirmed 22% decline in Kharif acreage. [S4]
• 2025 context: IMD's 2025 LRF had predicted above-normal monsoon — which materialised, providing a relatively good agricultural year. [S3]

7. Prelims Hooks

• IMD is under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), not the Ministry of Environment — a common confusion.
• The Long Period Average (LPA) for India's June–September monsoon rainfall is 88 cm (1971–2020 base period).
• IMD classifies rainfall below 90% of LPA as "Deficient" and 90–95% LPA as "Below Normal."
• 6 in 10 El Niño years historically produce weak southwest monsoon in India. [S4]
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects the Indian monsoon — a positive IOD strengthens it; negative IOD weakens it; neutral IOD has no significant impact.
• The 1997–98 El Niño (one of the strongest on record) still yielded 2% above-normal rainfall in India — attributed to a strongly positive IOD; IMD notes this is a singular historical exception. [S4]
• MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System) is India's primary seasonal monsoon forecast model, developed under the National Monsoon Mission (2012). [S3]
• The Central Water Commission (CWC) (under Ministry of Jal Shakti) publishes weekly reservoir storage bulletins. [S4]
• As of June 25, 2026, reservoir levels were ~25% below June 2025 levels but ~5% above the 10-year average. [S4]
• The probability of a deficient monsoon in 2026 was pegged at 35% — more than double the climatological average of 16%. [S2]
• PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana) is the principal crop insurance scheme activated in drought/deficit years.
• The SWM officially lasts June 1 to September 30; July is typically the highest rainfall month.
• "Super El Niño" refers to an exceptionally intense El Niño event; the 2026 event's warming peak is expected in winter (post-SWM). [S4]

8. Mains Relevance

Plausible Mains Questions: 1. "Examine the relationship between El Niño and the Indian southwest monsoon. How does the Indian Ocean Dipole modulate this relationship? Discuss with recent examples." (GS-I / GS-III) 2. "A below-normal monsoon has cascading effects on India's food security, rural economy, and fiscal management. Critically analyse the institutional mechanisms India has to respond to monsoon deficits." (GS-III) 3. "Evaluate the accuracy and limitations of IMD's Long Range Forecast system. How can improvements in seasonal forecasting strengthen India's agricultural planning?" (GS-III / Science & Technology)

9. Related Topics to Study Next

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

1. IMD vs. MoEFCC confusion: IMD is under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), not the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change — a frequent mix-up in MCQs.
2. LPA value: Some aspirants memorise outdated LPA figures. The current LPA (1971–2020 base) is 88 cm; older base periods (e.g., 1961–1990) gave different values — always use the most recent.
3. IOD direction confusion: A positive IOD (warmer western Indian Ocean) is beneficial for Indian monsoon; a negative IOD is detrimental — students often reverse this.
4. El Niño = always deficit: Incorrect. ~4 in 10 El Niño years see normal or above-normal rainfall in India (e.g., 1997–98 due to positive IOD). The relationship is probabilistic, not deterministic.
5. CWC vs. IMD roles: CWC (under Ministry of Jal Shakti) monitors reservoirs and river flows; IMD (under MoES) issues weather and climate forecasts — separate institutions, separate ministries.
6. "Below Normal" vs. "Deficient": These are distinct IMD categories. Below normal = 90–95% LPA; Deficient = <90% LPA. Conflating them is a common error in both prelims and Mains answers.

11. Sources

• [S1] Updated Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during June–September 2026 — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2266479 — (Tier 1: pib.gov.in)
• [S2] Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2251594 — (Tier 1: pib.gov.in)
• [S3] PIB Press Note: The Indian Monsoon — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressNoteDetails.aspx?id=154892 — (Tier 1: pib.gov.in)
• [S4] "Rainfall will be below normal in July: IMD" — The Hindu, July 1, 2026 — https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/2026-07-01/th_chennai/articleGCVG6HRVM-15165490.ece — (Tier 4: thehindu.com)
• [S5] IMD further lowers 2026 monsoon forecast as El Niño set to develop — Business Standard, May 29, 2026 — https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/imd-further-lowers-2026-monsoon-forecast-as-el-nino-set-to-develop-126052901376_1.html — (Tier 4: business-standard.com)