UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — Rainfall will be below normal in July: IMD
Q1. With reference to the southwest monsoon, the sole national agency authorised to officially declare its onset over Kerala is:
- A. India Meteorological Department (IMD)
- B. Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS)
- C. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune
- D. Central Water Commission (CWC)
Q2. Which one of the following contributes the single largest share of India's total annual rainfall?
- A. The southwest (summer) monsoon, June–September
- B. The northeast (retreating) monsoon, October–December
- C. Pre-monsoon thunderstorms and western disturbances
- D. Post-monsoon cyclonic rainfall over the peninsula
Q3. In IMD's Long Range Forecast, the term 'Long Period Average (LPA)' most precisely refers to:
- A. The 1971–2020 average of the country's June–September rainfall (about 88 cm), against which the seasonal forecast is expressed as a percentage
- B. The simple average of rainfall over the immediately preceding ten monsoon seasons
- C. The rainfall value predicted by IMD's dynamical model for the current season
- D. The mean of the highest and lowest all-India monsoon rainfall on record
Q4. Consider the following pairings of IMD's seasonal rainfall categories with their ranges (as % of LPA):
1. Deficient — less than 90%
2. Normal — 96% to 104%
3. Above Normal — more than 104%
4. Excess — 100% to 104%
Which of the above is/are correctly identified?
- Deficient — less than 90%
- Normal — 96% to 104%
- Above Normal — more than 104%
- Excess — 100% to 104%
- A. 1 and 2 only
- B. 2 and 3 only
- C. 1, 2 and 3 only
- D. 1, 2, 3 and 4
Q5. Within the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, 'El Niño' is best defined as:
- A. The abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
- B. The abnormal cooling of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
- C. A phase in which the western Indian Ocean is always warmer than the eastern Indian Ocean
- D. The periodic warming of the surface waters of the North Atlantic Ocean
Q6. Historically, approximately how many out of every ten El Niño years have translated into a weak (below-normal or deficient) southwest monsoon over India?
- A. About 4 in 10
- B. About 6 in 10
- C. About 8 in 10
- D. All 10 in 10
Q7. With reference to IMD's 2026 southwest monsoon outlook compared with long-term (climatological) probabilities, consider the following statements:
1. IMD's updated seasonal (June–September) 2026 forecast places rainfall at about 90% of the LPA.
2. The probability assigned to 'deficient' rainfall in 2026 (about 35%) is more than double its climatological probability (about 16%).
3. The 2026 forecast assigns the highest probability to the 'normal' rainfall category.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- IMD's updated seasonal (June–September) 2026 forecast places rainfall at about 90% of the LPA.
- The probability assigned to 'deficient' rainfall in 2026 (about 35%) is more than double its climatological probability (about 16%).
- The 2026 forecast assigns the highest probability to the 'normal' rainfall category.
- A. 1 and 2 only
- B. 1 and 3 only
- C. 2 and 3 only
- D. 1, 2 and 3
Q8. IMD's June–September 2026 seasonal forecast of 90% of the LPA is stated with a model error of approximately how many percentage points?
- A. ± 2 percentage points
- B. ± 4 percentage points
- C. ± 5 percentage points
- D. ± 8 percentage points
Q9. Consider the following crops:
1. Paddy (rice)
2. Soybean
3. Cotton
4. Mustard
Which of the above is/are correctly identified as kharif crops sown during the southwest monsoon?
- Paddy (rice)
- Soybean
- Cotton
- Mustard
- A. 1 and 3 only
- B. 1, 2 and 3 only
- C. 2, 3 and 4 only
- D. 1, 2, 3 and 4
Q10. The all-India kharif sowing (crop acreage) progress data released during the season is primarily compiled and issued by which one of the following?
- A. Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare
- B. Ministry of Earth Sciences
- C. Department of Water Resources, Ministry of Jal Shakti
- D. Department of Food and Public Distribution, Ministry of Consumer Affairs
Q11. With reference to CWC-monitored reservoirs around late June 2026, consider the following statements:
1. Live storage was about 25% below the corresponding level of June 2025.
2. Despite the year-on-year fall, storage was still about 5% above the ten-year average ('normal' storage).
3. CWC publishes its reservoir storage bulletin on a daily basis.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- Live storage was about 25% below the corresponding level of June 2025.
- Despite the year-on-year fall, storage was still about 5% above the ten-year average ('normal' storage).
- CWC publishes its reservoir storage bulletin on a daily basis.
- A. 1 and 2 only
- B. 1 and 3 only
- C. 2 and 3 only
- D. 1, 2 and 3
Q12. Under the National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS), the satellite-based agricultural drought assessment for the states is carried out by which one of the following?
- A. Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre (MNCFC), Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare
- B. National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)
- C. Central Water Commission (CWC)
- D. India Meteorological Department (IMD)