PARLIAMENT QUESTION: MONSOON FORECAST ACCURACY AND IMPROVEMENTS

• IMD's seasonal southwest monsoon forecast has remained within its ±4% model error band for three consecutive years (2023–25), with average absolute error of 1.9% of LPA.
• Accuracy gains are driven by the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) strategy (introduced 2021) and Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) run by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
• Forecast credibility underpins agricultural planning, disaster management and food-inflation policy — high UPSC salience in GS-I (geography) and GS-III (S&T, agriculture, DM).