Long Range Forecast For the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall

• IMD's seasonal Long Range Forecast (LRF) for June–September 2026 projects all-India rainfall most likely below normal (90–95% of LPA), quantitatively 92% of LPA ± 5% model error.
• LPA reference period: 1971–2020 = 87 cm.
• Issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES); relevant for GS-I (geography), GS-III (agriculture, disaster mgmt., economy).
• A below-normal forecast directly affects kharif sowing, reservoir storage, hydropower, rural wages and inflation — high-yield UPSC current-affairs hook.