"The acceptance of a 1.5°C 'overshoot' is as much a political choice as a scientific conclusion." Critically examine.

As COP31 opens in Antalya, exceeding 1.5°C is treated as inevitable. Overshoot means passing 1.5°C and returning to it by 2100. The crossing is largely a scientific finding; the terms of accepting it are political.

Overshoot as a scientific conclusion

• Modelled basis: IPCC SR15 found most 1.5°C-consistent pathways to be overshoot pathways, as gross emissions usually exceed the remaining carbon budget by several hundred GtCO2 [1].
• Closed option: UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2026 says limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot is no longer possible [2].
• Honest framing: UNEP's 2025 statement calls a multi-decade average above 1.5°C very likely within the next decade [3].
• Spur to action: cutting emissions 26% by 2030 and 46% by 2035 would hold overshoot to about 0.3°C [3], so the term can justify faster cuts.

Overshoot as a political choice

• Chosen shortfall: full NDC delivery still implies 2.3–2.5°C of warming [3]; the pathway reflects national pledges, not physics alone.
• Deferred accountability: even the lowest-overshoot scenario relies on storing about 320 GtCO2 this century [2], through methods UNEP calls uncertain, risky and costly [3]. Emissions occur now; removal is promised decades later.
• Understated harm: returning to 1.5°C restores a number, not losses. IPCC warns of impacts, some irreversible, growing with overshoot's size and duration, notably in polar, mountain and coastal ecosystems [4].
• Erased equity: overshoot is one global curve naming no country, whereas a carbon budget asks who spent it. India contributed about 4% of cumulative emissions (1850–2019) with about one-sixth of humanity [5].
• Finance deficit: early cuts need money now. India records that the COP29 finance goal (NCQG) was adopted despite its objection, and seeks finance reflecting developed countries' cumulative emissions [6].

Assessment

• Science indicates that 1.5°C will be crossed; politics decides how high, how long, who removes and who pays.
• Historical share settles responsibility, not physics: the atmosphere counts every new tonne, so India's fair-share claim must accompany credible low-carbon growth.

Overshoot is thus a scientific forecast carrying political terms. COP31 should accept the crossing while capping its height and duration, reporting removals separately, and pairing budgets with finance, keeping SDG 13 and the equity principle (CBDR-RC) central.