"Accurate forecasts do not automatically translate into reduced losses." Discuss with reference to India's shift towards impact-based, decision-support cyclone warning systems.

IMD forecast both Very Severe Cyclonic Storms Phailin (2013) and Hudhud (2014) accurately, and India's early warnings won international recognition [1]. A forecast saves lives only when it leads to timely action on the ground, though. IMD's WebGIS-based Cyclone & Marine Decision Support System (DSS), launched on 12 October 2026, aims to close this gap between forecast and action [1].

Why accurate forecasts alone do not reduce losses

• Hazard is not impact: track, wind and rainfall describe the storm. They do not show which villages will flood or which kutcha houses will fall. Only 56% of countries combine hazard, exposure and vulnerability data [5].
• Weak last mile: the government told Parliament that gaps remain in mobile connectivity, local sirens, public awareness and satellite communication for fishers [3].
• Mismatch of scale: warnings are issued district by district, but DDMAs decide evacuations village by village under the DM Act, 2005.
• Separate institutions: IMD makes the forecast while NDMA and the states disseminate it. NCRMP Phase I (₹1,496.71 crore) was set up mainly to improve dissemination [4].

How the decision-support shift helps

• One platform: it shows track, storm surge, district-wise rainfall warnings and rainfall forecasts for river catchments on a single map [1]. This speeds up action by SDMAs, NDRF and CWC.
• Showing uncertainty: the cone of uncertainty lets managers plan for a range of possible tracks, not a single line [1].
• Feedback loop: the bi-annual Pre-Cyclone Exercise Meeting, held since 2008, reviews Action Taken Reports [1].
• Help for neighbours: RSMC New Delhi watches the North Indian Ocean 24×7 and advises seven Panel countries eight times a day [2]. None of the 20 LDCs and SIDS that WMO studied had fully put impact-based forecasting in place [6].

Remaining limits

• The DSS is a website, but deep-sea fishers get warnings through radio, SMS and NAViC [3].
• Its listed layers mostly show the hazard. Exposure and vulnerability layers are not yet part of it [1].

Way forward

• Link the DSS with NDMA's Web-DCRA risk atlas [7].
• Turn DSS outputs into local-language alerts sent through INCOIS SMS, NAViC and AIR [3].
• Measure how DDMAs actually use the DSS at each exercise meeting.

Accurate forecasting is necessary but not enough on its own. The DSS moves India from forecasting "what the weather will be" towards "what the weather will do." Adding vulnerability data and last-mile channels would turn forecast accuracy into fewer losses, in line with the Sendai Framework's early-warning target and SDGs 11 and 13.