Can India reconcile a fossil-fuel phase-out with its developmental and energy-security needs? Examine this in light of its 2035 NDC.

At COP31, the UN Secretary-General said that "fossil fuels must go the way of the dinosaurs" [1]. India's 2035 NDC gives a measured reply. It cuts emissions intensity but sets no absolute cap [3]. This means India can reconcile the two only through a gradual, fair and financed phase-down, not an abrupt phase-out.

Why an abrupt phase-out clashes with India's needs

• Energy security: Non-fossil sources crossed 50% of installed capacity in June 2025 [2]. Coal still produces most of the electricity actually generated and remains the grid's baseload.
• Development: Urbanisation and manufacturing are pushing energy demand up. An intensity target lets GDP grow while emissions per unit of output fall [3].
• Just transition: Coal-belt states depend on mining jobs, royalties and railway freight income.
• Equity: At COP29, India asked for US$1.3 trillion a year, with US$600 billion as grants [4]. MoEFCC later called the US$300 billion NCQG outcome incompatible with CBDR-RC and equity [5].

How the 2035 NDC tries to reconcile the two

• A 47% cut in the emissions intensity of GDP by 2035 from 2005 levels, up from 45% by 2030 [3].
• About 60% non-fossil installed capacity by 2035 [3]. This builds on the 2030 target of 50%, which India met five years early [2].
• A carbon sink of 3.5–4.0 billion tonnes of CO₂e through forest and tree cover [3].
• The sequence is to build clean capacity first and retire coal as storage and grids mature.

Gaps that remain

• Global ambition gap: Even if every country fully delivers its NDC, warming reaches 2.3–2.5°C [6]. Climate disasters will hit India whoever caused the emissions.
• Finance squeeze: Developing countries need US$310–365 billion a year for adaptation by 2035. They received only US$26 billion in 2023 [7]. Adaptation spending competes with money for the energy transition.
• Capacity is not generation: Intermittent renewables need battery storage, grid upgrades and secure supplies of critical minerals.

Way forward

• Scale up storage, pumped hydro and the National Green Hydrogen Mission.
• Draw up district-level just-transition plans for coal regions, covering reskilling and economic diversification.
• Offer conditional ambition: faster coal retirement in return for grant-based finance.

India can reconcile growth, energy security and decarbonisation by sequencing the change: clean energy first, coal decline next and fair finance throughout. A credible NDC combined with firm demands on finance keeps India on the path to Net Zero 2070. It also stays true to SDG 7, SDG 13 and the principle of climate justice.