Climate change threatens rainfed rice far more than irrigated rice in India. Examine the reasons and suggest an adaptation strategy.

ICAR's NICRA modelling projects how much rice yields could fall by 2050 and 2080 if farmers do not adapt. Rainfed rice could lose 20% by 2050 and 47% by 2080. Irrigated rice would lose only 3.5% and 5% [1]. Assured water therefore works as climate insurance, and adaptation policy must put rainfed farms first.

Why rainfed rice is more vulnerable

• It depends on the monsoon: a late onset, long dry spells and uneven rainfall hit the crop at sensitive stages such as transplanting and flowering. Rainfed farmers have no stored water to fall back on.
• Heat hits it harder: irrigation keeps the soil moist and the crop cooler. Rainfed rice often faces heat and drought at the same time, which raises grain sterility.
• Floods and submergence: rainfed lowlands, especially in eastern India, are exposed to flash floods. Since 2014, 50 flood- and submergence-tolerant varieties have had to be developed [1].
• Its farmers are economically weaker: most rainfed rice farmers are smallholders. They use few inputs, get little credit and replace seed slowly, so they cannot switch quickly to better varieties.
• More pest damage: water-stressed plants suffer more from pests and diseases.

Adaptation strategy

1. Resilient seed that reaches the field: of 668 rice varieties developed in 2014–24, 199 are extreme-climate resilient, including 103 drought-tolerant ones [1]. Seed must be multiplied early, and the area actually sown with these varieties should be tracked, not just the number released.
2. Faster breeding: the genome-edited varieties DRR Dhan 100 (Kamala) and Pusa DST Rice 1 were made with CRISPR-Cas and contain no foreign DNA [2]. They should be scaled up only after independent multi-location trials confirm the claimed benefits.
3. Protective irrigation: PM Krishi Sinchai Yojana's 'Har Khet Ko Pani', farm ponds and watershed works can give rainfed farms life-saving water.
4. Climate-smart farming practices: Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) cuts water use by up to 30% and also reduces methane [3]. Direct Seeded Rice (DSR) avoids water-heavy puddling. The World Bank's 'Scaling NextGen Rice' programme promotes such practices across Asia [4], so adapting does not have to raise emissions.
5. Risk cover: PMFBY crop insurance, weather-based advisories, and a shift to millets or pulses in drought-prone uplands.

Rainfed rice suffers most because it has neither a water buffer nor an economic buffer. A combined package can narrow the gap: resilient seed that reaches fields, protective irrigation and low-emission farming practices, backed by insurance and extension services. This would advance SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) and protect India's food security.