·The Hindu·15 marks·250–350 wordsEconomy

Critically evaluate the challenge of capturing the informal economy in India's evolving statistical indicators.

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In this answer
  1. Advances in the statistical architecture
  2. Why the informal economy still escapes capture

India's informal economy — unincorporated, unregistered enterprises and own-account workers — remains its employment backbone, with self-employment near 56% and casual labour about a fifth of all workers [3]. New high-frequency indicators improve measurement of the formal economy, but capture this larger segment only indirectly.

Advances in the statistical architecture

  • Administrative-data turn: the upcoming Index of Services Production (ISP), base year 2024-25, uses a "tri-source" model — GST turnover data, administrative records for banking and insurance, and the new survey ASISSE [2].
  • Filling a real gap: services contribute over half of GDP but had no short-term output index comparable to the IIP; ISP supplies a monthly signal [2].
  • Lower cost and burden: tax records replace sporadic surveys, giving faster, near-census coverage of registered firms [2].
  • Consultative rollout: an approach paper, FAQs and a phased trial release allow methodology to be tested publicly [1].

Why the informal economy still escapes capture

  • Threshold exclusion: GST registration is not mandatory below ₹20 lakh all-India turnover (₹10 lakh in Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura), so most small service units never enter the frame [1].
  • Definitional limit: ISP covers only enterprises registered under the GST Act / Companies Act — the informal sector is excluded by design, not accident [1].
  • Formalisation bias: migration of existing activity into the tax net can appear as fresh growth, overstating momentum.
  • Frequency mismatch: informal activity is visible only through periodic surveys such as PLFS and unincorporated-enterprise surveys, leaving policy with a monthly signal for the formal half alone [3].
  • Acknowledged partiality: the approach paper itself targets around 70% of services GVA, conceding residual gaps [2].

Administrative data is a genuine advance, but it measures the recorded economy, not the whole economy. The way forward is complementarity — pair GST-based indices with strengthened periodic informal-sector surveys, publish explicit coverage caveats with every release, and exploit digital-payment and GSTN sampling frames to build indicators for unregistered units. Measured honestly, such statistical capacity-building advances SDG 17.19 and makes growth data genuinely inclusive.

Sources

  1. 1FAQs on Index of Services Production – Trial Indices with Base year 2024-25, PIB/MoSPIbase year 2024-25, formal-sector-only coverage, GST registration thresholds, trial release
  2. 2An Approach Paper to Compilation of the Index of Service Production (ISP) for the formal sector of the economy, PIB/MoSPItri-source GST/administrative/ASISSE model, absence of a services counterpart to IIP, ~70% GVA coverage target
  3. 3Press Note on Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report, 2025, MoSPIself-employment and casual-labour shares; survey-based periodic tracking of informal work
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