"The demographic dividend is a window, not a guarantee." Discuss in light of the projected global jobs deficit in the Global South.

The demographic dividend is the boost to growth that comes when falling fertility leaves more working-age adults for each dependent. It lasts only for a limited time, and it pays off only if those adults find productive jobs. The World Bank projects that about 1.2 billion young people in developing economies will reach working age over the next 10–15 years. Only about 420 million jobs are expected to be created for them [1].

Why it is a "window": the dividend is time-bound

• The working-age bulge shrinks as societies age. If it is not used, the dividend turns into a demographic liability.
• The gap is worst where the bulge is largest. About 20% of young people worldwide are NEET (not in employment, education or training) [3]. In low-income countries the figure is 27.9% [2].

Why it is "not a guarantee": jobs, not headcount, decide

• Growth without decent work: Global unemployment is steady at 4.9%, but job quality has stagnated. About 2.1 billion workers are in informal jobs [2].
• Disguised deficit: Poor young people cannot afford to stay unemployed, so the gap shows up as informality rather than joblessness. About 90% of India's workers are informal [4].
• Education–jobs mismatch: India's youth (15–29) unemployment rate fell from 17.8% in 2017-18 to 10.2% in 2023-24 [5]. Yet graduate unemployment was 29.1% in 2022 [4].
• Narrowing ladders: Factories now hire fewer workers for the same output (premature deindustrialisation). In addition, 6.1% of jobs held by 15–29-year-olds are in occupations highly exposed to AI [3].
• Social risk: A large group of idle young people can fuel unrest and migration pressure.

Turning the window into a dividend

• The World Bank Group's jobs strategy rests on three drivers: infrastructure, business-ready regulation and helping the private sector scale. It targets five job-rich sectors, and it mobilised a record $112 billion of private capital in 2026 [1]. Capital raised does not equal jobs created, so the Bank should also report how many jobs it creates.
• India should judge Skill India by how many trainees get jobs, and favour labour-intensive sectors such as agribusiness, tourism and healthcare [1].
• Measure better: Track NEET rates and informality alongside the headline unemployment rate [2].

In short, demography opens the window, but only decent jobs let a country benefit from it. If the Global South combines skilling with labour-intensive growth and counts jobs created rather than dollars raised, its youth bulge can drive prosperity. That is the promise of SDG 8: decent work for all.