Despite several missions, India remains heavily dependent on edible oil imports. Analyse the structural causes and assess the potential of NMEO-Oilseeds to achieve Atmanirbharta.

India was nearly self-sufficient in edible oil during the 1990s "Yellow Revolution" under the Technology Mission on Oilseeds [2]. Today imports meet more than half of demand: import dependence fell only from 63.2% (2015-16) to 56.25% (2023-24) [3]. Several missions have not closed the gap because the causes are structural.

Structural causes of import dependence

• Demand outpaces supply: As incomes rise, people eat more oil. In 2022-23 India imported 16.5 MT, and domestic output met only 40-45% of need [2].
• Low productivity: Oilseeds are grown mostly on rainfed, small plots with poor-quality seed. Yields remain far below global levels, so NITI Aayog stresses yield (vertical) expansion [2].
• Crop competition: MSP procurement and assured irrigation make rice and wheat more attractive, so oilseed area is hard to retain. NITI lists area retention as a priority [2].
• Inconsistent trade policy: The Basic Customs Duty (BCD) is cut whenever consumer prices rise. In September 2026 the BCD on crude soybean oil was halved from 10% to 5%, and farmers called this an attack on their livelihood [4]. The price signal to growers stays weak.
• Cheap imported palm oil and weak processing and market links hold back domestic crushing [2].

Potential of NMEO-Oilseeds

• Strengths: The mission runs from 2024-25 to 2030-31 with ₹10,103 crore. It covers mustard, groundnut, soybean, sunflower and sesamum, plus secondary sources such as rice bran and cottonseed [1]. It aims to raise primary oilseed output from 39 MT to 69.7 MT [1].
• Complementarity: Together with NMEO-Oil Palm, it targets 25.45 MT of edible oil, about 72% of projected requirement by 2030-31 [1][5].
• Limits: Even if the targets are fully met, about 28% would still be imported [1]. Past progress was only about 7 points in eight years [3]. Duty cuts can also undercut the mission's price incentives [4].

Seeds + yield → Output ↑ → Import share ↓
        ↑                      |
Stable prices / duty ← ← ← ← ←┘  (policy coherence loop)

Supply missions work only with stable price signals.

Overall, NMEO-Oilseeds can sharply cut dependence, but full Atmanirbharta is unlikely by 2030-31. Three steps would help: a dynamic, rule-based trade policy [2], PM-AASHA price support when duties are cut, and tracking the import share each year alongside tonnes produced. Together these can turn a supply mission into lasting self-reliance, in line with SDG 2 and Atmanirbhar Bharat.