Discuss the impact of climate change on plantation crops in India, with special reference to coconut cultivation. What policy shifts are needed to ensure long-term sustainability of the sector?

India is the world's largest coconut producer, accounting for about 30.37% of global output and supporting nearly 30 million livelihoods, including 10 million farmers [1]. For perennial, location-fixed plantation crops, climate change — not yield potential — is now the binding constraint.

Climate impact on plantation crops

• Shifting suitability zones: erratic rainfall and warming are pushing traditional belts in coastal Kerala and Tamil Nadu toward marginal suitability, while CDB extends cultivation into Gujarat and Assam.
• Yield and quality stress: heat stress and dry spells during flowering depress nut-set in coconut, arecanut and cocoa; recovery is slow since palms take years to bear.
• Biotic pressure: warmer, humid conditions intensify pest and disease outbreaks such as coconut wilt on the west coast, destroying standing palms rather than merely lowering yields.
• Livelihood shock: losses concentrate on small coastal farmers and on women in copra, oil and coir processing [1].

Limits of a productivity-first response

• The Budget 2026–27 Coconut Promotion Scheme (₹350 crore, shared with cashew and cocoa) works mainly by replacing old palms with high-yielding saplings [1].
• Genotypes bred for favourable conditions may underperform in wilt-endemic or heat-stressed tracts, turning subsidy into stranded assets.
• Support stays supply-side — seedlings and area expansion [2] — with weak market linkages.

Policy shifts needed

• Resilience-first planting material: mass multiplication of wilt-tolerant and heat-tolerant varieties via ICAR–CPCRI, extending the national stress-tolerant varieties push to plantation crops [3].
• Zone-matched deployment: climate-suitability mapping to fix variety-to-region fit before subsidised distribution.
• Beyond the farm gate: value addition and skill development for a climate-resilient coconut economy [2].
• Convergence: Centre–State coordination and stakeholder consultation in scheme rollout [4], with insurance cover for perennials.

Coconut's crisis is thus one of resilience, not of yield. A scheme redesigned around climate-adapted planting material, zone-specific extension and processing linkages would secure farm incomes and export ambitions alike — making India's coconut leadership durable, in keeping with its sustainable-agriculture mandate and SDG-13.