Discuss how natural climate variability like ENSO interacts with anthropogenic climate change to intensify extreme weather events.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural ocean–atmosphere oscillation in the tropical Pacific, while greenhouse warming is a human-driven upward trend in background temperature. The two are distinct in origin but additive in effect: variability now rides on a warmer baseline, so the same oscillation delivers sharper extremes than it did a century ago.

How ENSO operates as a natural driver

• El Niño's warm phase weakens trade winds and shifts convection eastward, redrawing global rainfall belts; the Met Office forecasts Niño3.4 sea-surface temperatures above 3°C in 2026 against a typical El Niño rise of 1–2°C [1].
• It rarely acts alone — the WMO projects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing alongside it, modulating monsoon behaviour over South Asia [2].

The compounding interaction

• ENSO redistributes ocean heat to the atmosphere; anthropogenic forcing adds to the stock of heat. Their superposition, not either alone, produces record years — the residual heat of this event is expected to make 2027 the warmest year since 1850 [1].
• The WMO assesses an 86% chance that a year in 2026–2030 exceeds 2024's record, and a 91% chance of temporarily breaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels [3].
• A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, so El Niño-driven circulation shifts now yield heavier downpours where it rains and deeper deficits where it does not — drier-than-normal conditions are projected over the Indian subcontinent, wetter over the Greater Horn of Africa [2].

Consequences for India

• With a large share of net sown area rainfed, monsoon deficits transmit directly to kharif output, rural incomes and food inflation [4].
• Heat stress, water scarcity and drought risk fall hardest on the poorest, making adaptation an equity question.

Extreme weather today is therefore best read as natural variability amplified by human forcing rather than either in isolation. Strengthening IMD's long-range forecasting, expanding micro-irrigation and climate-resilient seed varieties, and integrating ENSO outlooks into disaster preparedness can convert early warning into early action — advancing both SDG 13 and the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal.