A divided government in the US may reshape its trade and strategic priorities. Examine the implications for India–US relations.

After the November 2026 mid-terms, Democrats control both Houses of Congress, returning the US to divided government. The US Supreme Court has reaffirmed that tariff power belongs to Congress [1], so Capitol Hill now shapes India–US ties as much as the White House.

How divided government reshapes US priorities

• Trade: Congress holds constitutional power over tariffs [5]. Any new tariff law now needs Democratic votes. However, Section 232 duties of 50% on steel and aluminium rest on existing statutes [3]. A Section 122 surcharge cannot last beyond 150 days unless Congress extends it [4].
• Gridlock over reversal: The President can veto bills (Article I, Section 7), and an override needs two-thirds of both Houses. Policy is therefore more likely to stall than to reverse.
• Strategic: Congress will scrutinise alliances, tariffs and immigration more closely. Executive orders become the President's main tool, and they are easier to challenge in court.

Implications for India

• Trade deal's durability: The February 2026 framework cut tariffs on about $31 billion of Indian exports from 50% to 18% [2]. But part of that 50% rested on IEEPA tariffs that the Court later struck down [1]. India's concessions need review, and a promise from the President alone is now less durable.
• Opportunity: A trade agenda led by Congress may bring more predictable, rules-based tariffs. This would help export sectors such as textiles and pharmaceuticals.
• Technology and defence: TRUST and the 10-year Major Defence Partnership framework (2025) [7] enjoy bipartisan support, so they will likely continue. Budget gridlock, however, may delay specific programmes.
• Immigration and diaspora: The $100,000 H-1B fee was imposed by presidential proclamation [6]. Congress may scrutinise it but cannot easily repeal it, so Indian IT firms face continued uncertainty.
• Geopolitical: A "lame-duck" image may weaken US credibility in the Quad and the Indo-Pacific. India should keep hedging through strategic autonomy.

Way forward

• Lobby congressional committees and the India Caucus, not only the executive.
• Renegotiate concessions linked to the invalidated tariffs.
• Diversify export markets through FTAs.

Divided government will not reverse India–US convergence, but it moves the centre of trade policy to Congress and makes its pace slower. By engaging Congress as well as the President, India can turn this uncertainty into a more durable, bipartisan Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership.