Dual-use export controls are becoming a tool of geoeconomic coercion. How should India respond while keeping its infrastructure projects on schedule?

Dual-use export controls are licensing curbs on goods that have both civilian and military uses. They were built for non-proliferation, but they now work as tools of leverage. China's Announcement No. 50 of 2026 puts tunnel-boring machines (TBMs), their cutterheads and main drives, walking excavators and high-altitude shotcrete machines under control from 18 November 2026. Exports to "sensitive" destinations in dispute with China will need licences [1]. India needs a two-track response: short-term continuity and long-term capability.

How export controls become coercion

• Case-by-case licensing: every shipment to a disputed-border state needs approval. A one-off delay becomes a permanent gate [1].
• Anti-rerouting: exports to other countries need registration and end-use declarations, which blocks indirect sourcing [1].
• Component chokepoints: the controls also cover parts and remanufacturing technology [1]. Western-brand machines that use Chinese parts are exposed too.
• Strategic targeting: the curbs on high-altitude shotcrete machines bear directly on Himalayan border tunnels [1].

Keeping projects on schedule (short term)

• Map supply chains by place of manufacture, not brand, across metro, high-speed rail and highway tenders.
• Front-load procurement and stock critical spares before the rules take effect. Add alternative-sourcing clauses to contracts.
• Diversify suppliers to Japan, Europe and Korea, using frameworks like the India–Japan–Australia Supply Chain Resilience Initiative [4].
• Diplomacy can ease individual consignments, but it cannot be a lasting fix against a standing licence regime.

Building resilience (long term)

• Put the CIE Scheme into operation. Budget 2026-27 announced it and named TBMs for metros and high-altitude roads [2]. Its money should go to design and repair, not just assembly.
• Pool demand across metro, rail, road and hydro agencies so that a domestic plant gets the minimum orders it needs.
• Scale up capital-goods support. Phase II of the competitiveness scheme has sanctioned only 29 projects worth ₹891.37 crore [3], which is modest for strategic machinery.
• Joint ventures with foreign makers and local manufacturing, building on models like the German firm Herrenknecht's Chennai assembly unit. Move up from parts to design in stages.

India's response should combine near-term supply continuity with a gradual build-up of domestic capability. Under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat vision, making capital goods in India together with trusted partners can protect both the Gati Shakti timelines and strategic autonomy. That keeps India's infrastructure growth free of other countries' leverage.