El Niño years repeatedly expose the vulnerability of rainfed agriculture in peninsular India. Suggest structural measures to build drought resilience.

El Niño weakens the southwest monsoon, and peninsular India is hit first because of its rain-shadow Deccan districts, hard-rock aquifers and largely rainfed farms. The weak 2026 monsoon has again left large parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh drought-hit. Building resilience needs structural reform, not only relief after each crisis.

Why the peninsula is vulnerable

• Hard-rock aquifers store little water, so groundwater falls quickly when the rains fail.
• Water-hungry crops such as sugarcane and paddy are grown in semi-arid tracts.
• Planning is built around relief. The CAG found Karnataka had issued no region-specific drought guidelines even though drought hits the State again and again [1].

Structural measures

1. Water and land

• Scale up watershed development, farm ponds and micro-irrigation under PMKSY ("Per Drop More Crop").
• Adopt the water harvesting, contour cultivation and sub-surface barriers that the CAG recommended for each region [1].

2. Crops and incomes

• Move towards millets, pulses and oilseeds that suit low rainfall, and back this shift with procurement support.
• Keep district crop contingency plans ready before sowing begins.
• Widen PMFBY coverage to protect farm incomes.

3. Early warning and planning

• Use the drought manual's combined indicators for early triggers: rainfall deficiency, area sown, NDVI and moisture adequacy [2].
• Install soil-moisture sensors. Karnataka never procured them [1].
• Put NDMA's drought guidelines into practice through State and district drought plans [3].

4. Financing resilience

• Allocate disaster funds by a State's vulnerability, not its past spending [4].
• Operationalise a separate Disaster Mitigation Fund for permanent works in drought-prone States [4].
• Stabilise the relief pool. NCCD collections, which finance the NDRF, fell from ₹5,690 crore (2015-16) to ₹2,500 crore (2018-19) [4].
• Release advance NDRF funds automatically in droughts of rare severity [4].

El Niño forecast → indicator triggers → contingency crop plan
        ↓                                      ↓
mitigation-fund works (watersheds, recharge) → insurance + timely relief

Figure: From crisis response to risk management

Drought in peninsular India is a recurring hazard, not a surprise. Combining water conservation, crop change, sensor-based early warning and risk-based financing can turn each El Niño year from an emergency into a managed risk. This shift serves SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), as well as the Disaster Management Act's mandate to prevent and mitigate disasters, not just respond to them.