Evaluate the role of IMD's impact-based forecasting in mitigating snow-related disasters in the Union Territories of J&K and Ladakh.

Impact-based forecasting tells people what the weather will do, such as close roads or load avalanche-prone slopes, and not just what it will be. In J&K and Ladakh, Western Disturbances (WDs) bring heavy winter snow. For each such event, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, issues a Special Message. These messages make snow events predictable. They do not yet fully protect people from them.

Strengths

• Lead time: IMD's January 2026 Special Message forecast an intense WD. It flagged isolated heavy snow over the Kashmir valley on 22–23 January, several days ahead [2].
• Direct line to responders: Special Messages go to the NDMA control room and other agencies. They name the impact area as Jammu–Kashmir–Ladakh–Gilgit-Baltistan–Muzaffarabad [3].
• Spell-wise tracking: IMD follows a WD over its whole spell, for example 22–26 January 2026 [2]. This lets authorities plan road clearance and stock supplies in time.
• Support for avalanche forecasting: IMD's weather outlook complements DGRE (DRDO). DGRE issues avalanche forecasts at least 24 hours ahead using AI/ML models [4].

Limitations

• Regional weather, not slope hazard: IMD forecasts snowfall for a region. Avalanche danger on a given slope is DGRE's job. DGRE had only 45 working automatic weather stations, with 303 more still under testing or installation [4].
• Warnings built for the Army: DGRE bulletins go mainly to the Army and official agencies [5]. Tourists at places like Gulmarg, which fills up after fresh snow [1], are outside this chain.
• Old rulebook: NDMA's guidelines on landslides and snow avalanches date from 2009 [6]. They came before avalanche radar and CAP alerts (Common Alerting Protocol, a standard alert format) [4].

Way forward

• Make tour operators and ski-slope managers named receivers of CAP-based alerts [4].
• Extend avalanche radar to busy tourist slopes. The North Sikkim radar detects an avalanche within three seconds of it starting [4].
• Finish installing the planned weather stations, and update the NDMA guidelines of 2009 [6].

IMD's impact-based forecasting has done its part: it gives timely, location-specific warnings of snow events. Turning those warnings into safety needs IMD, DGRE, NDMA and the UT administrations to work as one system that reaches every person at risk. That would match the Sendai Framework's goal of early warning for all, and makes IMD's role necessary but not yet sufficient.