Evaluate whether India's semiconductor programme can make India a 'trusted' node in global chip supply chains amid US–China technology rivalry.

Chips are now used as a weapon in great-power rivalry. In November 2026, US House Speaker Mike Johnson spoke of a "developing consensus" in Congress to curb advanced AI-chip exports to China [1]. One aim of India's India Semiconductor Mission (ISM) is to build a trusted semiconductor supply chain [2]. It can make India a trusted mid-value node, but not yet a frontier one.

Strengths: why India can become a trusted node

• Demand from geopolitics: Taiwan makes over 60% of the world's chips and about 90% of the most advanced ones. Countries now want to spread supply across more places [2]. US curbs on China add to that push [1].
• Policy scale: Semicon 1.0 had a ₹76,000 crore outlay. Semicon 2.0 (₹1,27,500 crore) was approved in July 2026 [3]. Fab projects get up to 50% fiscal support [2].
• From approvals to output: 12 projects have been approved in six states, with commitments above ₹1.64 lakh crore. Three are already in commercial production [3].
• Materials and design: India is "a rich source of chemicals, minerals and gases" [2]. By April 2026, 75 institutions had taped out 211 chips (sent final designs for manufacture) [3].
• Partners: India has partnerships with the US, Japan, the Netherlands and the EU. It has also joined the Pax Silica coalition on resilient silicon supply chains [3].

Limitations: why trust is not yet assured

• Gap at the leading edge: India's fabs target 28nm-or-below and mature nodes [2]. Chips made so far go only down to 12 nm [3]. That is far from the most advanced AI chips.
• AI dependence remains: The IndiaAI Mission's 45,000+ GPUs [3] are still designed abroad. Rules written in Washington with China in mind could still slow India's supply.
• Commitments are not spending: The ₹1.64 lakh crore figure is pledged investment [3]. It depends on firms following through.
• Moving rules: US critics call the current export policy "too weak" [1], so tighter rules are likely. Being "trusted" is something India's partners grant; it does not come automatically.

India is building a real base in fabs, packaging, design and materials, but frontier AI chips and their rules stay outside its control. The way forward is to:

• push materials diplomacy under Semicon 2.0
• secure assured-supply understandings through Pax Silica and US partnerships
• buy GPUs from several suppliers rather than one

Done this way, the ISM can turn the US–China rivalry into an opportunity for Atmanirbhar Bharat and SDG 9 (resilient infrastructure).