Examine India's post-RCEP FTA strategy through a comparative analysis of the India–Australia, India–UAE, and India–New Zealand agreements.

India's 2019 withdrawal from RCEP, driven by fears of an import surge and inadequate market access, marked a decisive shift from mega-regional blocs to deep, calibrated bilateral deals — an arc traced by the UAE CEPA (2022), Australia ECTA (2022) and the New Zealand FTA (signed 27 April 2026) [5].

The strategic logic of the pivot

• Partner selection by complementarity: the UAE as an energy and re-export gateway, Australia and New Zealand as resource-rich, non-competing economies — none poses the manufacturing import threat that shaped India's RCEP exit.
• Speed as strategy: the India–NZ FTA was concluded in about nine months over five formal rounds, among India's fastest [1], signalling credibility to future partners such as the EU.

Convergences across the three

• Asymmetric goods access: both Australia [3] and New Zealand [1] eliminated duties on 100% of tariff lines, favouring India's labour-intensive exports — textiles, leather, footwear, gems and jewellery, marine products [4].
• Services and mobility: ECTA secured visa quotas for Indian yoga teachers and chefs and post-study work rights for students [3]; the NZ FTA adds commitments in IT-ITeS, education and professional services [1].
• Defensive carve-outs: dairy, onions, almonds, chickpeas and sugar were shielded from New Zealand concessions [4], mirroring India's agricultural red lines in ECTA.

Divergences and limitations

• Depth varies: CEPA is the most comprehensive, targeting over USD 100 billion in goods trade within five years [2]; ECTA is an interim step toward a full CECA; the NZ FTA rests on a thin base of roughly USD 1.3 billion in merchandise trade, its value being strategic — a gateway to Oceania and the Pacific.
• Low FTA utilisation by MSMEs, rules-of-origin compliance costs and persistent trade deficits temper these gains.

India's post-RCEP approach is thus pragmatic rather than protectionist: open where complementary, guarded where livelihoods are at stake. Converting these agreements into realised exports now requires stronger utilisation support, logistics and standards capacity — the domestic foundation on which market access becomes genuine competitiveness, and Viksit Bharat's trade ambition is realised.