Falling revenue per GB and rising ARPU appear contradictory. Analyse what this means for the financial health of India's telecom sector and for consumer welfare.

TRAI's Performance Indicator Report for April–June 2026 shows monthly wireless ARPU rising to ₹187.12, while revenue per GB fell to ₹7.13 [1]. The two figures do not contradict each other. Users pay slightly more each month but consume far more data, so the price of each unit falls even as revenue per user rises.

Resolving the paradox

• Usage outpaces billing: data per subscriber rose 6.32% in the quarter to 28.39 GB a month, against ARPU growth of only 1.19% [1].
• Deeper, not wider, growth: mobile data volume grew 8.30%, but wireless data subscribers grew only 1.86% [1].
• Voice shifting to data: minutes of usage fell 2.65% [1], which suggests calls are moving to internet apps.

ARPU ↑ (₹187.12)  ÷  GB per user ↑↑ (28.39 GB)  =  ₹ per GB ↓ (₹7.13)

Bills rise slowly; consumption rises fast.

Implications for financial health

• Revenue recovery: Gross Revenue grew 10.50% and AGR 9.19% year-on-year [1]. Operators are earning more from each existing user.
• Exchequer gains: licence fee reached ₹7,103 crore, about 8% of AGR [1].
• Levy drag: licence fee and Spectrum Usage Charges are charged as a share of AGR [1], so part of every revenue gain goes to the government rather than to 5G and rural capex.
• Legacy stress: the 2021 reforms gave a four-year moratorium on AGR dues, an option for government to take equity in place of dues, and a narrower AGR definition [2]. The 2022 BSNL revival package included ₹33,404 crore for AGR dues [3]. Healthy sector totals can hide a weak operator.

Implications for consumer welfare

• More value per rupee: cheaper gigabytes support video, UPI and digital public infrastructure-based welfare delivery.
• Burden on the mass segment: prepaid ARPU (₹200.72) is higher than postpaid ARPU (₹114.26) [1], so tariff increases fall mainly on prepaid users, who form the mass market.
• Quality must keep pace: TRAI's 2024 Quality of Service Regulations tightened benchmarks with effect from October 2024 [4]. Cheap data is only useful if it is reliable data.
• Competition risk: if an operator exits, the market moves towards a duopoly, and low per-GB prices could reverse.

Overall, the paradox reflects a maturing market that is earning more from heavier use rather than from new users. The way forward is to:

• rationalise AGR-linked levies,
• keep at least three private operators competing, and
• link TRAI's usage data with its quality-of-service monitoring.

Together these would let the sector stay viable while data stays affordable, in line with SDG 9.c's goal of universal, affordable internet access.