The future of minilaterals like the Quad depends on the priorities of major powers. Critically analyse this with reference to the recent gap in Quad summits.

The Quad (India, the USA, Japan and Australia) is an informal Indo-Pacific minilateral with no treaty or secretariat. The sixth Leaders' Summit was held at Wilmington in September 2024 [1], and leaders meet again only in Manila in November 2026 [2]. The gap shows that major-power priorities matter greatly, but they do not alone decide the Quad's future.

Major-power priorities shape the Quad

• Lapsed hosting: India was due to host the 2025 summit [1]. It never took place, so Manila is the first summit since 2024 [2].
• Downgraded format: Manila is one evening meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit, in a non-member country [2].
• US hedging: Two days later, Trump meets Xi Jinping and Putin in Shenzhen, with nuclear arms control on the agenda [2]. This weakens the Quad's China-balancing logic.
• Leader-driven design: Without a secretariat, the Quad's strategic direction depends on political will at summit level.

Yet the Quad outlives any one capital's priorities

• Ministerial continuity: Foreign Ministers met on 21 January 2025 [3] and in New Delhi on 26 May 2026 [4].
• Functional delivery: The Delhi meeting adopted a Critical Minerals Initiative Framework. It aims to mobilise up to $20 billion in public and private support [5]. Wilmington launched the Ports of the Future Partnership and a Logistics Network pilot [1].
• Middle-power agency: India pushed energy and fertiliser availability onto the agenda [6]. Manila will take up shipping-lane safety and attacks on commercial ships [2].
• Caveat for India: US–China deal-making could leave India alone on its disputed border with China. Aligning investment-screening rules under the minerals framework [5] also narrows India's policy space.

Way forward

• The Manila outcome should fix the next summit's host and date, and India should reclaim its turn.
• Convert the minerals framework into named projects, starting with e-waste recycling [5], and link them to the National Critical Mineral Mission.
• Open maritime and minerals projects to ASEAN partners, in line with the Act East Policy.

Major-power priorities set the Quad's pace, but ministerial cooperation and the interests of middle powers keep its substance alive. A regular summit cycle and tangible public goods can protect it from shifts in Washington. That would advance a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific in the spirit of SDG 17 (partnerships for the goals).