Green molecules are emerging as the new axis of India–EU economic cooperation. Comment.

Green molecules are hydrogen made through electrolysis powered by renewable energy, and products derived from it such as ammonia. They have entered India–EU trade. AM Green won the entire Asian lot of Germany's H2Global auction, securing a 10-year deal to supply RFNBO ammonia worth at least €585 million [1]. This shows a promising but still early axis of cooperation.

Why green molecules are an emerging axis

• Complementary needs: Europe needs imported renewable fuels to decarbonise its industry. India's National Green Hydrogen Mission (₹19,744 crore) targets 5 MMT per annum by 2030 and explicitly aims to make India an export hub [2].
• Cost competitiveness: SECI's first green ammonia auction discovered ₹55.75/kg, compared with ₹100.28/kg in the 2024 H2Global round [3]. The second price includes delivery to Europe and EU certification, so part of the gap comes from comparing different products.
• Lower financing risk: In developing economies, the cost of capital largely decides how expensive green hydrogen is [4]. A 10-year contract in euros reassures lenders and helps attract the Mission's expected ₹8 lakh crore of investment [2].
• Industrial base: Tenders for 1,500 MW per annum of electrolyser manufacturing [5] create room for technology partnerships with the EU.

Why it is not yet the axis

• Small scale: The deal works out to only about €58.5 million a year. Any volumes above the minimum depend on Hintco earning enough from resale in Europe [1].
• Rule-taker risk: Only ammonia that meets EU RFNBO norms qualifies [1]. Indian plants therefore depend on standards India does not write.
• Export versus domestic use: SIGHT Component II was designed to green Indian fertilisers, with 7.5 lakh tonnes per annum allocated [6]. Exported ammonia cuts Germany's emissions, not those of Indian urea plants.
• Early stage: Tenders cover 4.12 lakh tonnes per annum of green hydrogen [5]. That is less than a tenth of the 2030 target [2].

Way forward

• Seek mutual recognition of green certification in India–EU trade talks.
• Use SECI to pool demand from many buyers, and offer H2Global-style long-term contracts to domestic users as well.
• Link export growth to rising use of green ammonia in Indian fertiliser plants.

Green molecules add a genuinely new, climate-aligned layer to India–EU ties, built on complementary strengths. One flagship contract can become a lasting axis only if certification is aligned, output scales up and domestic use grows alongside exports. That would advance SDG 7 and SDG 13 and India's Net Zero 2070 goal.