India's demographic dividend can turn into a demographic disaster if youth expect to be worse off than their parents. Discuss the policy measures needed.

India's demographic dividend depends on a simple promise: each generation will do better than the one before. Yet one in four Indians aged 15–29 is NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training) [1]. If young people stop believing that promise, a large working-age population can bring frustration and unrest instead of growth.

Why the dividend is at risk

• Educated unemployment: In 2022, youth unemployment was 29.1% among graduates and only 3.4% among illiterate youth [2]. The promise fails exactly where families invested the most.
• Hidden distress: Youth unemployment fell to 9.9% in 2025. It is still 13.6% in cities, and the 25% NEET share is far larger than the headline rate [1].
• Stuck ladders: India's overall intergenerational mobility has stayed flat since liberalisation. It rose for Scheduled Castes but fell for Muslims [4].

Policy measures needed

• Create jobs, not just job-seekers: The ILO–IHD report finds that the main constraint is too few jobs, not too few skills [2]. Policy should favour labour-intensive manufacturing, MSMEs and services that employ many people.
• Tie Skill India to employment: Build high-quality skill training into the education system. Technical education raises a young person's chances of getting a job [2].
• Measure what matters: MoSPI and policymakers should track NEET alongside unemployment [1]. Mobility should also be measured group by group through household surveys, so that groups losing ground can be identified [4].
• Equal opportunity from early childhood: In OECD countries, a child born in the bottom income decile takes 4–5 generations to reach average income. Lower inequality goes with higher mobility, as in the Nordic countries [3]. India should invest in foundational learning, health and affordable housing.
• Targeted inclusion: Young women face higher unemployment than young men at every education level [2]. They need job support of their own, such as childcare and safe transport.

Turning the youth bulge into a dividend needs three things working together: jobs, fair access to opportunity, and better measurement. Growth led by job creation, skilling linked to employers, and early investment in equal opportunity can restore young people's faith in upward mobility. That would honour Article 39(a), which directs the State to secure an adequate livelihood for all citizens, and SDG 8 (decent work). It would also give India's youth a real stake in the nation's growth.