"India's fertiliser security is hostage to West Asian geopolitics." Examine this in light of the recent rise in sulphur and phosphatic raw-material prices.

About 92% of the world's sulphur is a by-product of oil refining and gas processing [1]. As a result, India's phosphatic fertiliser chain depends on Gulf hydrocarbons. After the West Asia conflict, sulphur prices rose almost four-fold, from $280/tonne (July 2025) to $1,050/tonne (July 2026) [1]. The statement is largely valid, but India still has some policy tools of its own.

Gulf oil/gas → Sulphur → Sulphuric acid → Phosphoric acid → DAP/NPK → Farm yields

Fig: How a Hormuz shock reaches the farm

Why the dependence is real

• Concentrated sourcing: 2.02 of India's 2.25 MMT of sulphur imports in 2025 came from West Asia [1].
• Chokepoint risk: the Strait of Hormuz carries a large share of global sulphur and ammonia shipments, and both are key inputs for DAP [3]. PIB reported the safe passage of ships carrying urea, DAP and sulphur through it as a special achievement [5].
• Structural import dependence: India imports about 90% of its phosphates and 100% of its potash. The conflict hit imports of ammonia, phosphoric acid and sulphur [2].
• Fiscal transmission: the Centre pays special DAP packages above NBS rates to keep retail prices affordable [6]. This turns global price shocks into a larger subsidy bill.
• Compounding shocks: China's export tightening [3] and Red Sea rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, which adds over 6,500 km per voyage [4].

Why "hostage" overstates the case

• Domestic base: India produces 3.7 MMT of sulphur and is among the top 10 producers [1].
• Non-Gulf phosphate sources: rock phosphate comes from Jordan, Morocco, Togo and Mauritania, and phosphoric acid from Morocco, Tunisia and Senegal [2].
• Contracted supply: long-term agreements with Saudi Arabia's Maaden secure 3.1 MMT of DAP a year for five years from 2025-26 [4]. However, these fix the quantity, not the route.
• Resilience so far: adequate stocks of urea, DAP, MOP and NPKS were maintained through FY 2025-26 and Kharif 2026 [2].

Way forward

• Equity stakes in mines and plants outside the Gulf, and strategic buffers of sulphur and phosphoric acid.
• Exploration of indigenous phosphatic rock deposits for Aatmanirbharta [7].
• Balanced fertilisation to reduce total demand for imported nutrients.

Overall, India's fertiliser security is vulnerable, not captive: Gulf dominance of sulphur and ammonia is real, but diversified phosphate sources and long-term contracts give some protection. Moving from buying abroad to owning supply chains, backed by buffers and domestic exploration, can protect farmers from geopolitical shocks and advance SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).