India's free foodgrain programme rests on outdated population estimates. Examine how better data on household consumption behaviour could improve subsidy targeting without compromising food security.

Under PMGKAY, about 81.35 crore NFSA beneficiaries get free foodgrains for five years from January 2024. The cost is about ₹11.80 lakh crore, and the Centre pays all of it [1]. Yet coverage is still fixed using Census 2011. Better consumption data can sharpen targeting, but only if it is used to make the list accurate rather than simply smaller.

Why outdated estimates distort targeting

• Exclusion error: The population has grown, but the quotas are frozen. The Supreme Court had to order ration cards for migrant workers registered on e-Shram, even beyond the state quotas [2].
• Inclusion error: Households that have moved out of poverty stay on the lists for years. The exchequer keeps paying for them.
• Uptake gap: About 80 crore people draw grain against an entitlement of 81.35 crore [3]. The gap could come from unfilled slots or from eligible people who are not being reached. Each needs a different fix.

How consumption data improves targeting

• Measure need, not headcount: Robert Hall won the 2026 Nobel partly for work on household consumption behaviour [4]. It shows that how families spend reveals their real economic condition. Households that cannot smooth consumption are the truly distressed.
• Fresh, granular evidence: MoSPI's HCES 2023-24 covered about 2.62 lakh households. It found that food is about 47% of rural spending and that rural inequality has fallen (Gini 0.266 → 0.237) [5]. State-wise MPCE can recalibrate state quotas.
• Dynamic lists: About 20.55 crore ration cards are fully digitised, and Aadhaar seeding is above 99.9% [3]. This allows periodic updates instead of once-a-decade revisions.
• Fiscal efficiency: Savings from removing inclusion errors can fund the people who are currently excluded.

Safeguards for food security

• Add before deleting: Enrol excluded migrants first. Remove a household only after field verification and a chance to appeal.
• Ring-fence the poorest: Keep AAY households outside any re-estimation.
• Portability: ONORC recorded about 32.6 crore portability transactions in ten months of 2025 [3]. This protects mobile workers.
• No tech-exclusion: e-KYC or biometric failure must never lead to automatic deletion.

Consumption data can turn PMGKAY from a frozen quota into a needs-based list, corrected in both directions. With safeguards for migrants and the poorest, better targeting strengthens the right to food under Article 21 and progress on SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). It means feeding the right people, not feeding fewer people.