India's FTAs have often widened its trade deficit. With reference to the ongoing review of AITIGA, critically examine how the agreement can be rebalanced.

The ASEAN–India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) came into force in 2010. Since then, India's deficit with ASEAN has widened from USD 5.41 bn (2011-12) to USD 45.20 bn (2024-25) [1]. The 15th Joint Committee (JC) of the ongoing review met in Jakarta in October 2026 [3]. The review can rebalance the agreement, but only in part.

Why rebalancing is needed

• Exports have stalled: they stayed at about USD 39–44 bn while imports rose to USD 84.16 bn [1].
• The design is flawed: the Department of Commerce itself cites "injury to industries" and "inequitable tariff liberalization" by partner countries [2].

Levers within the review

• Equal tariff cuts: ask ASEAN members whose tariff offers were unequal to make matching cuts [2].
• Stronger Rules of Origin: stop goods from third countries being routed through ASEAN. The Rules of Origin (ROO) Sub-Committee met at both the 13th and 15th JCs [3][4].
• Non-tariff barriers: remove the standards, licences and testing rules that block Indian exports [2]. The Market Access Sub-Committee is working on this [4].
• Institutional fixes: a Legal & Institutional Issues Sub-Committee is reworking how the agreement is run [3].

Limits of rebalancing

• The treaty is not the only cause: weak Indian competitiveness also keeps exports flat, and no treaty can fix that.
• Goods trade is only part of the picture: ASEAN invested USD 156 bn of FDI in India (2000–23), against USD 56 bn from India to ASEAN [1].
• All ten must agree: India negotiates with a bloc. The target to substantially conclude talks by 2025 slipped [2], and the JC now demands "firm, time-bound deliverables" [3].
• India's own rules fall short: CAROTAR 2020 makes Indian importers check origin [5], but it cannot control certificates issued abroad.
• Defensive bias: blocking imports alone cuts the deficit by shrinking trade, not by growing exports.

Way forward

• Set chapter-by-chapter deadlines at the 16th JC in India (January 2027) [3].
• Write CAROTAR-style origin checks into AITIGA itself, so exporting states share responsibility [5].
• The AEM–India ministers' meeting should settle the tariff trade-offs politically [1].

Rebalancing AITIGA is necessary but not enough on its own. Success should be measured by growth in Indian exports, not just by imports blocked. A "balanced, constructive and forward-looking" agreement [3] would strengthen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and give the Act East Policy a lasting economic base [1].