India's recent FTA push marks a shift from its earlier caution about trade agreements. Critically examine the opportunities and risks for domestic industry.

India used to be wary of trade deals. It walked out of RCEP in 2019 because it feared a surge of cheap Chinese imports and harm to its dairy sector [1], and it sought a review of the ASEAN FTA [2]. Since 2024 it has signed deals quickly with the UK, EFTA, Oman, New Zealand and the EU [3]. This shift creates real opportunities for Indian industry, but those gains depend on whether firms can actually use the deals.

Opportunities

• Wide market access: The UK CETA gives duty-free entry to 99% of India's exports [4]. Oman offers zero duty on 98.08% of its tariff lines [3]. New Zealand removes duty on 100% of Indian exports [3].
• Gains for labour-intensive sectors: The EU FTA cuts tariffs of up to 10% to zero on about USD 33 billion of exports such as textiles, leather, marine products and gems [5]. This helps MSMEs and job creation.
• Partners that complement India: The government has chosen developed economies that do not compete with India's labour-intensive industries [3]. This lowers the risk of an RCEP-type import flood.
• Investment and services: New Zealand has committed USD 20 billion over 15 years [3]. The deals also include mobility commitments for professionals [3].
• Less dependence on the U.S.: Several markets at once spread the risk of protectionist tariff shocks.

Risks

• Low use of FTA benefits: Indian exporters have historically claimed only about 25% of available FTA preferences, against 70–80% in developed economies [6].
• Rules-of-origin burden on MSMEs: Proving origin carries fixed costs, so larger firms comply more easily than small ones [6].
• Import competition: India has opened 89.5% of its tariff lines to the UK [4]. Domestic producers of high-end goods such as autos and spirits will face more competition.
• Long time before benefits arrive: The EU deal has only been concluded [5]. Ratification will take time, so it gives no short-term cushion.
• Lessons from older FTAs: The ASEAN pact was reviewed because of trade imbalances [2], which shows that signing a deal does not guarantee gains.

On balance, the new FTAs are a more careful version of India's earlier approach rather than a break from it: they target complementary partners and protect sensitive sectors. Gains for industry will depend on digital origin certification, MSME outreach and publishing FTA-use data. With these steps, the deals can support a competitive Atmanirbhar industry that is integrated with global markets.