India's recurring coal stock crises at thermal plants are more a problem of logistics and planning than of coal availability. Critically examine.

CEA data for 30 September 2026 showed 84 of 191 thermal power plants (TPPs) at critical stock. That means below 25% of normative stock or under three days of generation [1]. The Coal Minister still denied any coal shortage [1]. The 2022 crisis and the 2026 crisis both suggest the problem lies mostly between the mine and the plant, although supply limits also play a part.

Why logistics and planning are the main cause

• Volatile buffer: Plants held a record 58.25 MT (about 25 days) in 2025, credited to Railways' silo loading [2]. Within a year, about 44% of plants were critical [1]. Coal can be delivered when the planning is done.
• Movement bottleneck: An Inter-Ministerial Sub Group exists to ease coal movement and critical stocks. Its members are the Ministries of Power, Coal and Railways, CEA, CIL and SCCL [3]. Coal rakes and passenger trains share the same tracks.
• Weak stocking discipline: CEA norms are 12–17 days for pithead plants and 20–26 days for non-pithead plants, calculated at 85% PLF [3]. These norms slip ahead of peak seasons.
• Poor forecasting: An El Niño-weakened monsoon cut hydropower in 2026 [1]. This risk could have been foreseen, but it was not built into pre-monsoon stocking.

Where availability does matter

• Demand shocks: Power demand grew 10% in 2026, the most in a decade. September shortages were the worst since August 2023 [1].
• Import dependence: In 2022, the Union used Section 11 of the Electricity Act to direct generators to import 10% of their coal for blending [4][5]. Blending of at least 6% was then required until March 2024 [6]. Domestic supply was not always enough in the short run.
• Federal cost burden: A compensation formula passed the cost of blending on to tariffs [5]. State DISCOMs bear the cost of a stocking gap they did not create.
• No storage backup yet: Coal absorbs every fall in hydro or renewable output. VGF support for about 43 GWh of battery storage (₹9,160 crore) is still years away from scale [7].

Overall, the statement largely holds. Coal exists at the pithead, but the stock at plants fails because of gaps in rail movement, stocking and forecasting. Demand surges also expose real short-run supply limits. The way forward has four parts:

• stocking targets linked to demand and monsoon forecasts, with norms enforced
• more silo loading and freight corridors
• transparent, real-time CEA data
• faster rollout of storage

Securing the plant-level buffer, not just mine output, is key to reliable and affordable power under SDG 7.