"India's startup policy is moving from expansion to sustainability." Assess this claim using indicators of employment, survival and capital formation.

Official messaging describes India's 2.62 lakh DPIIT-recognised startups as moving from rapid expansion to sustainable growth [1]. The three indicators show that policy intent has shifted, but outcomes only partly follow.

Employment: rising, but thinner

• Gain: Reported jobs crossed 25 lakh, from 23.36 lakh in March 2026 [1][2].
• Gap: In FY 2025-26, recognitions rose 51.6% but direct jobs only 36.1% [2].
• Derived jobs per startup slipped from about 10.5 to 9.5, modest against the "job creators" goal [1][2].
• Young firms need time to hire, so only cohort tracking can settle this.

Survival: reassuring headline, weak evidence

• Gain: Only 6,789 of 2,12,283 recognised startups (about 3.2%) were recorded as closed by January 2026 [3].
• Gap: The count covers only dissolved or struck-off entities, so dormant firms escape it. Cumulative data also gives no survival rate by age [3].
• Entry is still accelerating: about 5,500 recognitions monthly since March 2026, against 4,600 in record FY 2025-26 (derived) [1][2]. Young firms therefore flatter the closure ratio.
• Precedent: CAG found 22,446 of 1,64,283 PMEGP units checked not working or untraceable, showing why physical verification matters [4].

Capital formation: strongest evidence of a shift

• Gain: The Fund of Funds' ₹10,000 crore, committed to over 145 AIFs, supported ₹25,500+ crore of investment in 1,370+ startups [5].
• FFS 2.0 (₹10,000 crore, notified April 2026) targets deep-tech and early-growth firms needing patient capital [1][6].
• Gap: Fund-backed firms remain well under 1% of recognised startups (derived) [1][5].
• Gap: The Standing Committee on Finance (2020) found unicorn capital came mainly from foreign sources and sought a larger Fund of Funds [7].

Overall, policy design has turned towards durable capital, while employment and survival data still describe expansion. The claim is therefore partly valid: a direction, not yet an outcome. Publishing cohort-wise survival at three, five and seven years, with stage-wise fund data, would make it testable and align startup growth with SDG 8 and Viksit Bharat @ 2047.