Long-range ENSO forecasts give India a window to prepare. Suggest a multi-sectoral preparedness framework for a 'very strong' El Niño.

In October 2026, the sea-surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region crossed 30°C for the first time on record, and the anomaly reached +3.48°C [1]. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives an 83% chance of a historic event (RONI ≥ +2.5°C) in Oct–Dec [3]. WMO expects El Niño to last through February 2027 [2]. India should use this lead time to put a coordinated, multi-sectoral plan in place.

1. Forecasting and Early Warning

• Multi-driver outlooks: IMD should read ENSO together with the Indian Ocean Dipole. WMO notes that a developing positive IOD may change regional impacts [2].
• Adopt relative indices such as CPC's RONI, which compares Niño 3.4 with the wider tropics, so that El Niño can be separated from background warming [4].
• Issue impact-based district advisories, because a stronger event does not bring proportionally stronger impacts [1].

2. Agriculture and Water

• The December peak moves the risk to the northeast monsoon and rabi crops. Update ICAR-CRIDA's District Agriculture Contingency Plans for both drought and flood [5].
• Stock short-duration seeds in advance, plan reservoir releases and promote micro-irrigation.
• Keep dual-hazard plans, since WMO flags floods as well as droughts [2].

3. Food Security and Economy

• Adjust FCI buffer stocks and open-market sales early to head off food inflation.
• Settle PMFBY claims faster and expand MGNREGS work to protect rural incomes.

4. Health and Disaster Management

• WMO warns that impacts will extend into 2027, with significant heat likely in the year after the peak [2]. Update Heat Action Plans under NDMA's heat-wave guidelines before summer 2027 [6].
• Issue fisheries and coral advisories, as global ocean heat is at a record (21.18°C) [1].

5. Institutional Coordination

• Set up an inter-ministerial El Niño cell (IMD, Agriculture, Food, Jal Shakti, Health, NDMA) with state nodal officers and a review after each season.

Forecast → District risk translation → Sectoral action → Review & feedback

Figure: El Niño preparedness cycle

A very strong El Niño is a hazard that can be forecast, so it need not catch India unprepared. One framework linking science, farms, food stocks and health systems can protect livelihoods and advance SDG 2 and SDG 13. It would also meet the Sendai Framework's call to move from responding to crises towards anticipating risk.