With most Green Hydrogen derivative contracts aimed at export, critically evaluate whether India should put export markets ahead of domestic decarbonisation of fertilisers and refining.

India's Green Hydrogen offtake commitments have reached 5,55,610 MTPA, the largest in the world. Over 70% of them are for export, mainly to Japan and Germany [1]. Exporting first can help build scale early. But it should support domestic decarbonisation, not replace it.

Case for putting exports first

• Bankability: long-term contracts paid in foreign currency give producers assured demand. These offtake deals are expected to bring in about ₹90,000 crore of investment [1].
• Price gap: in 2025 green hydrogen cost USD 3–6/kg, against USD 1.5–3/kg for grey hydrogen [2]. Indian users will not switch on their own, while foreign buyers pay a premium now.
• Scale and competitiveness: AM Green won the Asian lot of Germany's H2Global auction [1]. Larger plants can later lower costs for Indian fertiliser units too.
• Trade enablers: India notified Green Ammonia and Green Methanol Standards to make derivative exports easier [3].

Case against putting exports first

• The climate benefit goes abroad: emissions fall where the fuel is burnt. Indian fertiliser and refinery units, both hard-to-abate sectors, keep using grey hydrogen.
• Little capacity is actually built: only about 8,000 TPA was commissioned by February 2026, against 8,62,000 TPA awarded under SIGHT [4]. Export contracts compete for this small early output.
• Strain on resources: land, water and the roughly 125 GW of renewable capacity linked to the Mission [5] are also needed for India's own energy transition.
• India follows others' rules: German purchases follow the EU's RFNBO rules. Some deals are only at the "head of agreement" stage, so they are not yet firm [1].

Verdict: a two-track approach

• Treat exports as a bridge to build scale, not the end goal.
• Domestic demand already exists. The SIGHT Mode 2A fertiliser allocation was raised from 5.5 to 7.5 lakh TPA [6]. SECI's pooled tender covered 7.24 lakh MT/yr for 13 fertiliser plants [7].
• SECI could act as an H2Global-style intermediary, buying long-term from producers and reselling to refineries, steel plants and ship-fuel suppliers at prices they can afford.

Exports bring finance and scale, while domestic use brings India's own climate and energy-security gains. India should keep its export deals, but tie further incentives to matching growth in domestic demand. This would align the Mission with Net Zero 2070 and SDG 7 and SDG 13, turning India from a supplier of green molecules into an economy that uses them too.