Myanmar's prolonged military rule poses multidimensional challenges for India's Act East Policy and border security. Analyse India's options.
Myanmar — the only ASEAN state sharing a land border with India (1,643 km, touching Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh) [3] — is India's land bridge to Southeast Asia. Since the February 2021 coup, the State Administration Council's consolidation, the unimplemented ASEAN Five-Point Consensus and an intensifying civil war have turned that bridge into a liability, forcing India into a difficult balance between values and interests.
Challenges to the Act East Policy
- Connectivity paralysis: the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (Sittwe–Paletwa–Zorinpui) and the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway pass through contested Rakhine, Chin and Sagaing territory, stalling India's flagship links to ASEAN [4].
- Strategic displacement: with Western sanctions isolating the junta, China has deepened its patronage of both the SAC and ethnic armed organisations, narrowing India's space.
- Diplomatic dilemma: ASEAN's non-interference principle (Charter Article 2) blunts collective pressure [2], leaving India without a multilateral cover for its own engagement.
Challenges to border security
- Territorial fragmentation: EAOs and the People's Defence Force now control stretches abutting India, so New Delhi must deal with non-state actors, not only Naypyidaw.
- Humanitarian spillover: about 2.8 million internally displaced within Myanmar drives refugee inflows into Mizoram and Manipur [1], straining state administrations under the Foreigners Act, 1946 with no dedicated asylum law.
- Insurgency and trafficking: porous terrain aids northeastern insurgent sanctuaries, arms and narcotics flows — prompting scrapping of the Free Movement Regime and fencing of the full border [3].
India's options
- Sustain pragmatic dual-track engagement — working-level contact with the SAC for border management, alongside quiet outreach to EAOs and civil society.
- Push ASEAN-centrality: back the Five-Point Consensus rather than a unilateral posture.
- Secure connectivity through project-specific local arrangements; pair fencing with regulated border-pass trade so kinship ties are not severed.
- Frame a humane, calibrated refugee protocol in consultation with border states.
India's leverage lies in patience and proximity. A neighbourhood-first approach that keeps channels open with every stakeholder, protects development corridors and treats refugees with dignity will best serve both Act East ambitions and a peaceful, democratic Myanmar.
Sources
- 1As Crisis in Myanmar Worsens, Security Council Must Take Resolute Action… (UN Meetings Coverage, 4 April 2024)2.8 million internally displaced; 18.6 million needing humanitarian aid
- 2Charter of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN Secretariat)Article 2 non-interference principle
- 3MHA decides to scrap the Free Movement Regime between India and Myanmar (PIB, 8 February 2024)1,643 km border, fencing decision, internal-security rationale
- 4India–Myanmar Bilateral Brief (Ministry of External Affairs)Kaladan Multimodal project and Trilateral Highway