Why have past US–Iran de-escalation attempts failed? Discuss the role of domestic politics in shaping the negotiating positions of both sides.

US–Iran de-escalation has failed again and again, from the JCPOA to the 17 June 2026 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The MoU unravelled within weeks and blockades returned to the Strait of Hormuz [1][2]. The main cause is a structural trust deficit, and domestic politics on both sides makes it worse.

Why past attempts failed

• Deals did not outlast political change: the US left the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed "maximum pressure" sanctions [3]. The E3 (France, Germany and the UK) triggered snapback of UN sanctions in 2025 [4]. Each side came to see agreements as easy to reverse.
• Core issues were left vague: the MoU postponed disputes over enrichment, the rules for Hormuz, and sequencing of sanctions relief [2]. It gave only a 60-day window to settle them [1].
• The sequencing trap: each side's blockade is also its bargaining chip, so neither wants to lift it first. Iran's attacks on shipping in July and the US strikes that followed ended the ceasefire [2][5].
• Spoilers and linked issues: Israel questioned the MoU's provisions on Lebanon and Hezbollah [2].

Domestic politics – United States

• Pressure to look tough: political pressure in Washington favoured coercion over flexibility [2]. The President declared the MoU "over" and reimposed sanctions [2].
• Election calendar: with the November 2026 mid-terms close, any concession risks looking like surrender. Rejecting Iran's latest offer is best read as an opening gambit to win better terms.
• Congressional scrutiny of the President's war powers and of any sanctions relief limits how much he can promise.

Domestic politics – Iran

• Hardliners and the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) saw concessions after heavy military losses as weakness [2]. The IRGC Navy declared Hormuz "closed until further notice" [5].
• Economic distress pushes towards a deal: Brent crude rose ~65% in March 2026 [6], and sanctions and blockades squeeze Iran's revenue. The elected leadership also has to keep a restive young population engaged.

Pressures pulling the two sides apart

Pull towards a deal:  economic costs, global oil shock
Pull away from it:    hardliners, mid-term politics, mistrust
                      → public posturing on both sides

Figure: Why neither side moves first

Pressures inside each country help explain both the failures and the chance of a deal now. The way forward is a phased, reciprocal and verifiable sequence: Hormuz and Iranian ports reopen together, with IAEA verification [1] and a UN Security Council endorsement. This would support SDG 16 (peace and strong institutions) and protect energy security for importers such as India.