The prolonged delay in the decennial Census has distorted welfare targeting in India. Analyse, with reference to caste enumeration in Census 2027.

The Census is India's main source for the population figures that welfare schemes are sized on. Census 2021 was postponed, so schemes still run on 2011 figures, a gap of 16 years. Census 2027 is India's first digital Census and will include caste enumeration [1]. It can correct this distortion, but only if the new data is actually used to re-target welfare.

How the delay distorts targeting

• Food security: Section 9 of the NFSA, 2013 ties coverage (75% rural, 50% urban) to the latest published Census [2]. Quotas stayed frozen while the population grew, so eligible poor families fell outside the ration net.
• Judicial correction: In the Migrant Labourers case (29 June 2021), the Supreme Court directed the Centre to re-determine coverage. It noted that beneficiaries were "bound to increase" [3].
• Outdated sampling frames: Housing, sanitation and urban schemes depend on 2011 enumeration blocks. New settlements and migrants are therefore undercounted.
• Proportional quotas: SC/ST seats (Arts 330, 332) and local-body reservations are fixed by population share, which has changed since 2011.

Caste enumeration: what it can correct

• Filling the OBC gap: Until 2011, the Census counted only SCs and STs [4]. OBC welfare therefore relied on estimates.
• Sub-categorisation: The Rohini Commission (report submitted July 2023) examined the inequitable distribution of benefits within OBCs [5]. Caste-wise data can put its findings into practice.
• Granular targeting: Caste will be recorded electronically in the Population Enumeration phase (February 2027) [1]. This builds on houselisting records of over 32 crore families [6].

Limits and risks

• Classification: Self-declared castes come with synonyms and spelling variants. The Rohini Commission itself had to deal with these [5].
• Political capture: The data may feed demands to breach the 50% ceiling (Indra Sawhney, 1992) rather than improve targeting.
• Digital divide: Only about 2.6 crore people self-enumerated [6]. Poorer households, which welfare targets most, depend on enumerator visits.

The long delay has turned welfare targeting into guesswork. Census 2027, with caste data, is a chance to fix it. Its value depends on quickly resetting NFSA quotas, using caste data for evidence-based sub-categorisation and protecting data privacy. This would align welfare with the Article 38 commitment to reduce inequality and with SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).