How should India balance its strategic autonomy between Russia and the United States in the energy sector, given changing great-power deals on oil supply?

In October 2026, Russia partly lifted its diesel export ban after a deal with U.S. President Trump [1]. The year before, Washington had put a 25% penalty tariff on India for buying Russian oil [2]. Big powers are changing their energy deals quickly to suit themselves. India's best response is issue-based, multi-vector sourcing, not loyalty to one bloc.

Changing great-power deals: the challenge

• Transactional rules: The U.S. tariff was lifted in February 2026, citing India's commitment to stop importing Russian oil. However, the order allows it to be reimposed [2]. Months later, the U.S. itself made a deal with Moscow on diesel [1].
• Limited relief: The Kremlin admits the extra diesel will not fully stabilise oil markets [1]. Meanwhile, West Asian tensions continue [1].

Russia pillar: keep the option open

• Russia is among the new crude suppliers India has added since 2006-07 [3]. Keeping commercial and diplomatic channels open lets India return to Russian supply whenever sanctions ease.
• India's defence and nuclear ties with Russia also argue against cutting energy links completely.

U.S. pillar: deepen without dependence

• The India–U.S. Joint Statement (February 2025) aims to make the U.S. a leading supplier of crude, petroleum products and LNG. It also seeks wider strategic reserve cooperation [4].
• India signed its first major LPG import contract with the U.S. in 2025 [5].

Balancing toolkit

• Diversification: India's crude suppliers grew from 27 countries (2006-07) to 39 (2021-22) [3]. They now number about 40, and about 70% of crude imports come by routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz [6].
• Buffers: Strategic Petroleum Reserves of 5.33 MMT at Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru and Padur, with Phase II expansion planned [7].
• Structural hedge: The four-plank strategy has four parts: diversify supplies, raise domestic exploration and production, add alternative sources, and shift to gas and green hydrogen [8].
• Diplomatic principle: Buy where prices are competitive and the deal is lawful. Keep sanctions risk low through open, rules-based dealings with both powers.

To sum up, energy is being used as a tool of statecraft. India's answer is to hedge with many suppliers, larger reserves and cleaner energy at home. Steady diversification, combined with balanced partnerships with both Washington and Moscow, can secure affordable energy (SDG 7) while keeping India's strategic autonomy.