How should India calibrate its engagement with a politically transformed Sri Lanka to secure its strategic interests in the Indian Ocean Region?

Sri Lanka's 2022 Aragalaya demanded "system change". It brought to power the National People's Power (NPP) under President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who has restored macroeconomic stability while structural reforms remain pending [1]. India's engagement should be partnership-led and sensitive to the new politics, not driven by any one party or leader.

India's strategic stakes

• Sri Lanka sits beside the Indian Ocean sea lanes. India needs no hostile military footprint there and has to manage China's influence in the island's debt and ports.
• President Dissanayake has said Sri Lankan territory will not be used against India's security [2]. This assurance is the base India should build on.

Calibration 1: Institutionalise security ties

• Use the five-year Defence Cooperation MoU (April 2025) as an umbrella framework for exercises, HADR, port calls and defence-industry links [3].
• Prefer rule-based, transparent pacts that Parliament can scrutinise. A government built on "system change" will defend agreements it can show openly, and such agreements tend to outlast changes of government.

Calibration 2: Interdependence through energy and connectivity

• Build economic stakes through the Trincomalee energy hub with the UAE and the Sampur solar project [3], and push forward the HVDC grid interconnection [4].
• Projects should give Sri Lanka export revenue and energy security [3]. If they are seen as one-sided strategic grabs, they will feed nationalist backlash.

Calibration 3: Be the first responder on resilience

• Cyclone Ditwah forced Sri Lanka to seek an emergency US$206 million IMF Rapid Financing Instrument [5]. This shows how thin its buffers still are.
• The IMF also says debt-sustainability risks rose after the cyclone [6]. India can help with quick disaster relief, credit lines that do not add to debt stress, and support for the governance reforms in Sri Lanka's IMF Governance Diagnostic [6].

Calibration 4: People-centric soft power

• Expand capacity-building (700 Sri Lankans a year), Buddhist heritage links and community projects [3]. These reach the citizens behind the Aragalaya, not only the elites.
• Handle fishermen disputes and Tamil devolution quietly through dialogue, not public pressure.

To secure India's interests, the engagement should combine security assurances, economic interdependence and respect for Sri Lanka's strategic autonomy. A partnership that is transparent and people-centric, guided by Neighbourhood First and MAHASAGAR, will make India Sri Lanka's preferred partner rather than a pressure point. This also serves a stable, rules-based Indian Ocean.