A 'super' El Niño year may bring drought to north India and floods to coastal Tamil Nadu. Suggest a differentiated disaster-preparedness framework.

In 2026, waters off Peru and Ecuador have warmed by about 2 °C, against a usual ~0.5 °C. This marks a possible 'super' El Niño [1]. El Niño years have, on average, brought deficient rainfall and droughts to India, but Tamil Nadu shows a "strikingly different pattern" [1]. One all-India drought response would therefore fail. Preparedness must be differentiated by region and season.

Why the risks diverge

• North India depends on the Southwest Monsoon (Jun–Sep), which El Niño weakens [1].
• T.N. depends on the Northeast Monsoon (Oct–Dec), which is driven by Bay of Bengal conditions, the IOD and Nov–Dec cyclonic systems [1].
• Warmer Bay waters raise evaporation, and cyclonic circulations bring intense, localised rain, which means urban flood risk [1].

Super El Niño
   ├── SW Monsoon belt (North India) → deficit → DROUGHT track
   └── NEM belt (coastal T.N.)       → Bay moisture + cyclones → FLOOD track

Fig: Two-track risk in one ENSO year

Track 1: North India (drought)

• Early-warning triggers linked to the monsoon deficit, so drought is declared on time and contingency crop plans are ready.
• Fodder and drinking-water reserves, MGNREGA works, and protection of groundwater.
• Short-duration, drought-tolerant seed advisories issued to each district.

Track 2: Coastal T.N. (flood)

• District-level, impact-based forecasting: IMD already revises outlooks when a Bay depression or cyclone forms [1]. State plans should change with each update.
• Dual-purpose reservoir rules: store water for later months but keep space for Nov–Dec downpours.
• Desilted urban drains and tanks, pre-positioned evacuation teams and cyclone shelters.
• Read IMD's "normal to above-normal" forecast as covering southern T.N. only, not the whole state [1].

Cross-cutting enablers

• Do not assume IOD support. A positive IOD can offset El Niño drying [2][3], but the 2026 IOD is neutral [1], so uncertainty is higher.
• ENSO–IOD interactions differ from one event to the next [2][3]. Plans should therefore be scenario-based, not built on past analogue years.
• Under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, NDMA and the state authorities should issue ENSO-specific annexes to their plans that cover drought and flood together.

A 'super' El Niño is a national event with very different local effects. A two-track framework is built on sub-regional forecasts, flexible reservoir operation and dynamic district planning. It turns that uncertainty into readiness and advances the Sendai Framework and SDG 13 goal of resilient communities.