"Today's fertiliser shortage could become tomorrow's food crisis." Analyse how global conflicts link input supply chains with food security in the Global South.

Food production depends on traded inputs such as fertiliser, energy and seed. At the G20 Trade Ministers' Meeting in Milwaukee (2026), India warned that "today's fertiliser shortage could become tomorrow's food crisis" [1]. Conflicts break this input chain first, and the Global South bears most of the cost.

How conflict moves from inputs to food

Conflict/sanctions → fertiliser & energy supply cut → input price spike
 → lower fertiliser use → lower yields next season → food inflation, hunger

Fig: How an input shock turns into a food shock

• Concentrated supply: Russia and Ukraine are top exporters of wheat, maize and sunflower oil, and Russia alone is a top supplier of fertiliser [2].
• Contagion through export curbs: Between Feb 2022 and Feb 2023 there were 96 export restrictions on food, feed and fertiliser, and 8 of them targeted fertiliser alone. Only about 14% were notified to the WTO [2].
• Scale: The curbs in force covered about USD 85 billion of world exports [2]. G20 economies held 44% of those still in place in October 2022 [3].
• Energy link: Natural gas is the feedstock for nitrogen fertiliser. Higher energy costs therefore raise the cost of farming itself [2].

Why the Global South is hit hardest

• Import dependence: The shock hit developing countries and LDCs in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia hardest [2].
• Thin fiscal buffers: Few of these countries can absorb input costs. India can, through free foodgrains for over 800 million people [1].
• Humanitarian channel at risk: Export bans threatened food aid. The WTO's MC12 therefore exempted World Food Programme purchases from export restrictions [4].
• Compounding crises: Climate-hit yields, the after-effects of COVID-19 and inflation make each shock worse [2].

Counter-trend: trade can also stabilise markets

• 62 WTO members and 2 observers cut import barriers. Food prices peaked in spring 2022 and then fell for 10 straight months [2].
• The WTO set up a food-security work programme for LDCs and net food-importing developing countries [4].

Way forward

• Transparency: Extend the G20's market-monitoring tool AMIS (launched in 2011) to fertilisers [5]. Notify export curbs to the WTO on time.
• Norms: Put into practice the G20 Statement on the Weaponization of Food, adopted by consensus [1].
• Resilience: Diversify import sources, sign long-term supply contracts and promote balanced nutrient use.

Input security is therefore food security. A rules-based trading system with the WTO at its core [1], together with diversified input supply, can stop conflicts from becoming famines and advance SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) for the Global South.