‘Below normal’ rain likely for first time in 11 years

1. At a Glance

• India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast "below-normal" southwest monsoon (2026) — first such forecast in 11 years (since 2015). [1]
• Forecast: 92% of Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall (LPA = 87 cm) for June–September 2026. [1]
• Trigger for UPSC relevance: tests monsoon forecasting terminology, IMD classification categories, El Niño-La Niña mechanics, and agri-economy linkages (kharif sowing, fertilizer supply chain disruption from West Asia/Iran conflict). [1]
• Cross-cutting topic spanning GS-I (climatology), GS-III (agriculture, economy, disaster/drought), and current affairs (geopolitics-economy linkage). [1]

2. Why in the News

• On 13 April 2026 (reported 14 April 2026), M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, announced IMD's April forecast of "below-normal" monsoon at a press briefing. [1]
• M. Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD, attributed the forecast mainly to the likely development of an El Niño event during the second half of the monsoon. [1]
• Concurrent trigger: fertilizer supply disruptions linked to the West Asia/Iran war, raising fears of compounded stress on the kharif season given India's rainfed agriculture dependence. [1]

3. Background & Evolution

• IMD's monsoon forecasting uses a five-category qualitative scale (as referenced): below-normal, near-normal, normal/above-normal classifications benchmarked against the Long Period Average (LPA). [1]
• 2015: Last "below-normal" forecast (93% of LPA); actual outturn was worse — 86% of LPA, making it one of India's worst drought years. [1]
• 2023: IMD forecast "near-normal" rainfall at 96% of LPA, the most recent instance of reduced monsoon rainfall before 2026. [1]
• 2026: IMD forecasts "below-normal" monsoon at 92% of LPA — the first "below-normal" call since 2015 (11-year gap). [1]

4. Core Static Facts

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Economic

• Below-normal monsoon threatens kharif crop output, given India's agriculture remains significantly rainfed. [1]
• Compounding risk: fertilizer supply disruption from the West Asia war could raise input costs/scarcity right before kharif sowing. [1]

Environmental/Scientific

• Forecast driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition — La Niña-like → neutral → possible El Niño in monsoon's second half. [1]
• Historical correlation: El Niño years statistically associated with depressed Indian monsoon (9 of 16 occurrences since 1960). [1]

Geopolitical/Strategic

• Global conflict (Iran/West Asia war) has spillover effects on India's domestic agri-input (fertilizer) supply chains, illustrating food-security vulnerability to external shocks. [1]

Administrative/Governance

• Forecast issued via Ministry of Earth Sciences/IMD's institutional monsoon forecasting framework, informing contingency and agricultural planning. [1]

Historical

• Precedent of 2015 underestimation (forecast 93%, actual 86%) is a caution against over-reliance on April forecasts. [1]

6. Recent Developments (last 12-18 months)

• 13–14 April 2026: IMD issues first "below-normal" monsoon forecast since 2015, at 92% of LPA. [1]
• Ongoing (2025-26): West Asia/Iran war disrupting global fertilizer supply chains ahead of India's kharif season. [1]
• Reference point: 2023 monsoon forecast of "near-normal" (96% LPA) was the last instance of a below-full-normal IMD call prior to 2026. [1]

7. Prelims Hooks

• IMD's April 2026 forecast: monsoon rainfall likely 92% of LPA — classified "below-normal." [1]
• This is the first "below-normal" monsoon forecast in 11 years (last was 2015). [1]
• LPA (Long Period Average) benchmark for southwest monsoon = 87 cm. [1]
• Southwest monsoon season conventionally spans June to September. [1]
• 2015: forecast 93% of LPA ("below-normal"); actual = 86% — one of India's worst drought years. [1]
• 2023: IMD forecast was "near-normal" at 96% of LPA. [1]
• Nodal agency for monsoon forecasting: India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (not MoEFCC). [1]
• Director-General of IMD (as cited, 2026): M. Mohapatra. [1]
• Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (as cited, 2026): M. Ravichandran. [1]
• El Niño = periodic warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific. [1]
• El Niño has occurred 16 times since 1960; it depressed India's monsoon 9 times. [1]
• La Niña is described as the "converse" phenomenon of El Niño. [1]
• 2026 monsoon context: "weak" La Niña-like conditions transitioning to neutral, with El Niño effects expected in the second half of the monsoon season. [1]
• India's agriculture is characterized as "significantly rainfed," making monsoon performance critical to farm output. [1]
• Fertilizer supply disruptions ahead of kharif 2026 linked to the West Asia (Iran) war. [1]

8. Mains Relevance

• GS-I: Geography — climatology, monsoon mechanism, El Niño-La Niña-ENSO dynamics.
• GS-III: Agriculture — cropping pattern dependence on rainfall, food security, impact of monsoon variability on farm economy; Disaster Management — drought as a slow-onset disaster.
• Plausible question stems: 1. "Discuss the mechanism of El Niño and its historical correlation with monsoon performance in India, with reference to the IMD's 2026 forecast." (GS-I) 2. "Examine the vulnerability of Indian agriculture to monsoon variability and external supply-chain shocks, citing recent fertilizer disruptions." (GS-III) 3. "'Below-normal monsoon forecasts carry both scientific and administrative significance for India.' Elaborate with reference to IMD's forecasting record." (GS-III)

9. Related Topics to Study Next

• El Niño / La Niña / ENSO cycle — the core climatic driver referenced; foundational for monsoon-related questions.
• India Meteorological Department (IMD) — structure and forecasting methodology — institutional context for the source agency.
• Kharif vs Rabi cropping seasons — direct link to monsoon-dependent agricultural planning.
• Fertilizer subsidy and Nutrient-Based Subsidy (NBS) policy — connects to the supply-disruption angle.
• Drought classification and Drought Management Manual — relevant given 2015 drought precedent.
• India's rainfed agriculture and irrigation coverage — structural vulnerability highlighted in the article.
• Global commodity/supply chain impacts of West Asia conflicts — geopolitical-economic linkage.
• Long Period Average (LPA) and monsoon forecasting models (Statistical/Dynamical, MMCFS) — technical/scientific depth.

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Confusing Ministry of Earth Sciences (parent of IMD) with MoEFCC — a frequent misattribution in Prelims MCQs.
• Mixing up El Niño (warming, associated with weak monsoon) with La Niña (cooling, generally favorable for Indian monsoon) — directionality is often tested.
• Treating LPA as a fixed constant across years — it is a 50-year rolling average, periodically revised (aspirants must note the article's stated figure of 87 cm applies to this forecast cycle).
• Assuming "below-normal" forecast guarantees drought — 2015 shows actual outcomes can diverge (worse) from forecast, and forecasts are probabilistic, not deterministic.
• Overlooking the non-meteorological economic dimension (fertilizer supply/geopolitics) that this article deliberately weaves into the monsoon story — Mains answers should integrate both angles.