Earth’s orbits are filling up because governance hasn’t kept pace

Space Governance: Earth's Orbits Are Filling Up

UPSC Study Note | GS-II / GS-III | Space Policy & Global Governance

1. At a Glance

2. Why in the News

3. Background & Evolution

Year Milestone
1957 Sputnik-1 — first artificial satellite; orbital era begins
1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST) — foundational UN treaty; space = "province of all mankind"; no national appropriation
1972 Liability Convention — launching state liable for damage caused by space objects
1976 Registration Convention — states must register space objects with UN
2007 UN COPUOS adopts Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines (voluntary); endorsed by UN General Assembly [S2]
2007 China's ASAT test generates ~3,000 tracked debris objects — single largest debris-creation event
2009 Iridium-Cosmos collision — first accidental satellite-satellite collision; ~2,000 fragments
2010s SpaceX begins reusable booster development; launch cost collapses
2019 SpaceX launches first Starlink batch; >7,000 operational by 2026
2019 India demonstrates ASAT capability (Mission Shakti); criticised for debris creation [S2]
2021 ISRO Space Situational Assessment 2021 published — tracks conjunctions, debris proximity events [S2]
2022 ITU Radio Regulations reformed to pressure operators on spectrum/orbital slot compliance
2022 US FCC mandates 5-year deorbit rule for LEO satellites (down from 25-year guideline)
2023 UN Guterres statement on space sustainability governance gap [S1]
2027 (expected) UNISPACE IV — potential landmark multilateral space governance conference [S1]

4. Core Static Facts

Key Definitions: - Orbital debris / Space junk: Non-functional human-made objects in Earth orbit — defunct satellites, rocket stages, collision fragments, paint flecks - Kessler Syndrome: Cascade scenario (proposed by NASA scientist Donald Kessler, 1978) where collisions generate debris that triggers further collisions, potentially rendering entire orbital shells unusable [S3] - LEO (Low Earth Orbit): 200–2,000 km altitude; most congested zone; home to ISS, Starlink, Earth-observation satellites - GEO (Geostationary Orbit): 35,786 km; finite slots; governed by ITU allocation - Space Situational Awareness (SSA): Ability to track, catalogue, and predict movements of objects in orbit - Active Debris Removal (ADR): Technology/missions to physically remove defunct objects from orbit - IADC: Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee — 13-member body including ISRO, NASA, ESA, JAXA, CNSA

Governance Bodies / Instruments:

Body/Treaty Role
UN COPUOS Primary UN forum for space policy; reports to UNGA
ITU Allocates orbital slots and radio frequencies
Outer Space Treaty 1967 Foundational treaty; ~113 signatories
Liability Convention 1972 Damage liability framework
Registration Convention 1976 Object tracking/registration
IADC Technical coordination on debris mitigation
UN Debris Mitigation Guidelines 2007 Voluntary; 25-year deorbit rule (now superseded by some national rules) [S2]

Key Numbers: - ~36,500+ trackable objects in orbit (>10 cm) as of 2025 - ~1 million estimated fragments 1–10 cm (untrackable, lethal to satellites) - >170 million fragments <1 cm - Starlink: >7,000 satellites operational; SpaceX licence for up to 42,000 - 12,000+ spacecraft deployed in the last decade alone [S1] - LEO 900–1,000 km altitude band: already potentially past critical debris density tipping point [S3]

India-Specific: - ISRO: Member of IADC; publishes annual Space Situational Assessment [S2] - IN-SPACe (Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre): Regulates private Indian space operators post Space Policy 2023 - Space Policy 2023: India's first comprehensive national space policy; mandates debris mitigation compliance

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Scientific / Technological

Geopolitical / Strategic

Environmental

Legal / Constitutional

Ethical / Governance

Administrative

6. Recent Developments (Last 12–18 months)

7. Prelims Hooks

  1. Kessler Syndrome coined by NASA scientist Donald Kessler in 1978 — describes self-sustaining debris cascade. [S3]
  2. UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines adopted by COPUOS in 2007; endorsed by UNGA; voluntary (not binding). [S2]
  3. Outer Space Treaty (OST) signed 1967; declares space "province of all mankind"; ~113 signatories.
  4. IADC (Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) has 13 member agencies including ISRO.
  5. Mission Shakti (2019): India's ASAT test; debris largely decayed within months (LEO shot at ~300 km) but drew international criticism. [S2]
  6. ISRO publishes annual Space Situational Assessment — India's formal debris monitoring document. [S2]
  7. IN-SPACe: India's nodal body for authorising and supervising private space activities; established under Space Policy 2023.
  8. US FCC (not ITU) mandated the 5-year deorbit rule for LEO satellites in 2022 — replacing the older 25-year guideline.
  9. ITU (International Telecommunication Union) governs allocation of orbital slots and radio frequencies — not debris.
  10. Iridium-Cosmos collision (2009): First accidental satellite-satellite collision; produced ~2,000 tracked fragments.
  11. China's ASAT test (2007): Single largest debris-generation event in history; ~3,000 tracked fragments.
  12. UNISPACE IV expected in 2027 — fourth UN conference on outer space exploration and peaceful uses.
  13. LEO altitude range: 200–2,000 km; GEO exact altitude: 35,786 km.
  14. Starlink licensed for up to 42,000 satellites; SpaceX deployed >7,000 operationally as of 2026. [S4]
  15. Registration Convention 1976: Requires states to register space objects with UN Secretary-General.

8. Mains Relevance

GS Papers: - GS-II: International relations, multilateral institutions, global governance gaps - GS-III: Science & technology — space policy, indigenous capability, dual-use technology; Environment — commons governance

Syllabus Headings: - GS-II: "Important International institutions, agencies and fora — their structure, mandate" (COPUOS, IADC, ITU) - GS-II: "Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India" (Outer Space Treaty, Liability Convention) - GS-III: "Indigenization of technology and developing new technology; Science and Technology — developments and their applications"

Plausible Mains Questions: 1. "The orbital commons face a governance crisis analogous to the tragedy of the commons in terrestrial resources. Critically examine the adequacy of existing international frameworks for space debris management and suggest reforms." (GS-II, 15M) 2. "India's growing role as a space power — through ISRO and private sector liberalisation under Space Policy 2023 — brings both opportunity and responsibility in global orbital governance. Discuss." (GS-II/III, 15M) 3. "The Kessler Syndrome poses an existential risk to modern technological civilisation. Evaluate the scientific, legal and geopolitical dimensions of the space debris problem and India's stake in its resolution." (GS-III, 15M)

9. Related Topics to Study Next

Topic Connection
Outer Space Treaty 1967 & Space Law Regime Legal foundation for all orbital governance debates
India's Space Policy 2023 & IN-SPACe India's domestic regulatory response to orbital congestion
Common Heritage of Mankind principle Philosophical/legal basis for treating orbital commons equitably
UNISPACE Conferences (I–IV) Historical governance milestones; UNISPACE IV (2027) is imminent news peg
Dual-use technology & MTCR Satellite/rocket technology controls; missile-space nexus
Global Commons Governance (UNCLOS, Antarctic Treaty) Comparative governance models for shared spaces
Digital divide & equitable space access Developing nations' rights to orbital slots vs. mega-constellation monopolisation
Climate impact of launches & re-entry Stratospheric ozone, black carbon — UNEP's emerging concern

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

  1. ITU ≠ debris regulator: ITU governs spectrum and orbital slots (electromagnetic resource); debris governance sits with COPUOS/IADC — frequently confused.
  2. UN Debris Mitigation Guidelines are voluntary: Aspirants wrongly treat them as binding international law; no enforcement mechanism exists.
  3. IN-SPACe ≠ ISRO: ISRO conducts missions; IN-SPACe authorises and regulates private operators — distinct bodies under Space Policy 2023.
  4. Mission Shakti debris: India's 2019 ASAT target was at ~300 km (LEO), so debris decayed quickly — examiners may contrast this with China's 2007 test at ~850 km (debris still present). Don't conflate the two events or their debris timelines.
  5. 25-year vs. 5-year deorbit rule: The old IADC/UN guideline said 25 years; the US FCC (2022) tightened to 5 years for US-licensed LEO satellites — many aspirants cite 25 years as current standard.

11. Sources