Climate change could shrink grazing area by half by 2100

1. At a Glance

• New climate-projection study finds 36–50% of world's "climatically suitable" grazing area could disappear by 2100, with Africa hit hardest [1].
• 110–140 million pastoralists and 1.4–1.6 billion grazing animals are projected to be affected globally [1].
• Losses geographically overlap with regions already facing poverty, hunger, gender inequality and political fragility — a compounding vulnerability story UPSC loves testing [1].
• Sits at intersection of climate change, land degradation, pastoral livelihoods and global equity — relevant to GS-I (geography), GS-II (vulnerable groups), GS-III (climate/environment).

2. Why in the News

• A new study (reported in The Hindu Business Line, 15 February 2026 edition) used climate projections of temperature, rainfall and humidity through 2100 to model global grazing-suitability change [1].
• Finding: Asia is a partial exception — grazing suitability is projected to expand inland, clustering in Kazakhstan and Iran, even as most of the world (especially Africa) contracts [1].

3. Background & Evolution

• Rangelands/pastoral grazing systems have long been recognised as climate-vulnerable due to dependence on rainfall-driven forage and water availability [1][4].
• UNCCD (UN Convention to Combat Desertification) has flagged rangeland degradation as a global crisis; nearly half of world's rangelands already degraded due to climate change, population growth, land-use change and farmland expansion [3].
• India-specific data point (presented to UNCCD at COP14, New Delhi, Sept 2019): India lost 31% (5.65 million hectares) of grassland area and 19% of common/shared grazing lands in a decade [3].
• India hosted UNCCD COP14 in New Delhi, September 2019 [3].

4. Core Static Facts

Item	Detail
Projected global grazing-area loss by 2100	36–50% [1]
Region worst affected	Africa [1]
Region of projected expansion	Asia — inland, clustering in Kazakhstan & Iran [1]
Pastoralists at risk	110–140 million [1]
Grazing animals at risk	1.4–1.6 billion [1]
India's rangeland extent	~1.21 million sq km (Thar Desert to Himalayan meadows) [3]
India's share of world livestock	~20% [3]
Share of Indian livestock in pastoral systems	~77% [3]
India's grassland loss (per decade, pre-2019)	31% (5.65 mha) [3]
India's common/grazing-land loss (per decade)	19% [3]
Nodal international convention	UNCCD (UN Convention to Combat Desertification) [3]

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Environmental

• Rangeland/grazing-land loss is driven by rising temperature, altered rainfall and humidity patterns — direct climate-change attribution [1].
• Compounds with existing land degradation and desertification trends tracked by UNCCD [3].

Social

• Impacts overlap with countries already facing poverty, hunger and gender inequality, deepening existing vulnerability [1].
• Pastoralist communities (nomadic/semi-nomadic herders) face displacement, loss of traditional livelihoods and rights-recognition gaps [3].

Economic

• Livestock-dependent economies (especially in Africa, and pastoral India) face direct income and food-security risk as forage-suitable land shrinks.
• India's high dependence on pastoral livestock systems (77% of livestock) makes it structurally exposed despite Asia's projected "expansion" pockets [3][1].

Geopolitical/Strategic

• Grazing-suitability gains projected in Kazakhstan and Iran could reshape regional pastoral migration and resource competition in Central/West Asia [1].
• Cross-border pastoral mobility and land-use tensions may intensify as suitable zones shift.

Governance

• UNCCD framework provides the multilateral mechanism for tracking and responding to rangeland/grazing-land degradation, but implementation and pastoralist-rights recognition remain weak [3].

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• February 2026: Study reported projecting 36–50% grazing-area loss by 2100, published/covered via The Hindu Business Line (15 Feb 2026) [1].
• Continued reporting on rangelands' "silent demise," with degradation losses as high as 50% in some assessments [3].

7. Prelims Hooks

• Global "climatically suitable" grazing area projected to shrink 36–50% by 2100 [1].
• Region worst hit: Africa; region of projected inland expansion: Asia (Kazakhstan, Iran) [1].
• Projected affected pastoralists: 110–140 million; affected grazing animals: 1.4–1.6 billion [1].
• India's rangelands span ~1.21 million sq km [3].
• India holds ~20% of world's livestock population [3].
• ~77% of India's livestock is raised in pastoral (herded/common-land grazing) systems [3].
• India lost 31% (5.65 million hectares) of grassland in a decade, per data submitted to UNCCD [3].
• India lost 19% of common lands (shared grazing areas) in the same period [3].
• India hosted UNCCD COP14 in New Delhi, September 2019 [3].
• Nodal UN convention on land degradation/desertification: UNCCD (UN Convention to Combat Desertification) [3].
• Almost half of world's rangelands are already degraded (climate change, population growth, land-use change, farmland expansion) [3].

8. Mains Relevance

• GS-I: Geography — distribution of grazing lands/rangelands, climatic factors.
• GS-III: Environment — climate change impact on land use, desertification, conservation of resources.
• GS-II: Vulnerable sections — pastoralist communities' rights and livelihoods; international cooperation via UNCCD.
• Possible question stems: 1. "Discuss the projected impact of climate change on global grazing lands by 2100 and its implications for pastoral communities in Africa and Asia." (GS-I/III) 2. "Examine the status of India's rangelands and common grazing lands, and assess the adequacy of current policy frameworks in protecting pastoralist livelihoods." (GS-II/III) 3. "How does land degradation intersect with poverty, gender inequality and political fragility? Discuss with reference to UNCCD's findings on rangelands." (GS-II/III)

9. Related Topics to Study Next

• UNCCD & Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) — the multilateral framework tracking desertification/rangeland loss.
• India's Grassland/Common Property Resources policy — legal and tenurial gaps for pastoralists.
• Desertification and Land Degradation Atlas of India (ISRO) — data source for domestic degradation trends.
• Nomadic and De-notified Tribes (NT/DNT) in India — social dimension of pastoral communities.
• Global Warming scenarios (IPCC AR6/RCP-SSP pathways) — underlying climate models used in such projections.
• Forest Rights Act & Grazing Rights — legal framework intersecting with common-land access.
• Sustainable Development Goal 15 (Life on Land) — global target framework for land degradation.

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Don't confuse UNCCD (desertification/land degradation) with UNFCCC (climate change) or CBD (biodiversity) — three separate Rio Conventions.
• Don't assume grazing land is shrinking everywhere — the study explicitly projects expansion in parts of Asia (Kazakhstan, Iran), unlike Africa.
• India's grassland-loss figures (31% grassland, 19% common land) are decadal figures presented at COP14 (2019), not global 2100 projections — keep the two data sets distinct.
• Note the double range given in the study: 36–50% area loss vs 110–140 million pastoralists / 1.4–1.6 billion animals — these are different metrics, don't conflate them.
• UNCCD COP14 was hosted by India in New Delhi (2019), not Africa — a common location mix-up given Africa's centrality to desertification discourse.