SIR: 64.5 lakh voters potentially missing in Karnataka’s rolls

1. At a Glance

• What the story is about: The Hindu estimates that about 64.5 lakh eligible electors may be missing from Karnataka's final electoral roll, which was published after the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) [1].
• How the estimate was made: The paper compared the number of electors on the roll with the projected adult (18+) population from the 2020 Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections. This report was put together by the National Commission on Population, and Karnataka's Chief Electoral Officer also cites it [1].
• Who is missing: Mostly young people. 59.5% (38.41 lakh) of the possibly missing electors are aged 18–29 [1].
• Why it matters for UPSC: The SIR touches several examinable areas: Article 324, Section 21(3) of the Representation of the People Act (RPA), 1950, the Supreme Court's ruling on SIR, and the tension between cleaning the rolls and keeping eligible voters on them [2][8].

2. Why in the News

• Karnataka's final electoral roll after the SIR was released on Tuesday, 27 October 2026. It had 4,54,55,689 electors, not counting Service Electors [1].
• The Chief Electoral Officer's office reported an Elector-to-Population (E-to-P) ratio of 66.11. The Hindu's age-wise analysis says about 64.5 lakh people are potentially missing [1].
• The SIR is also being fought in court. The Supreme Court gave petitioners 10 days to reply to the ECI's affidavit defending SIR (Oct 2026) [7]. The ECI refused to name the software used for SIR, citing "trade secrets" (Oct 2026) [10].

3. Background & Evolution

• Why the ECI says it is doing SIR: To make the rolls "accurate, up-to-date, and free of ineligible or duplicate entries" while protecting eligible voters. It is being done in phases across the country [2].
• Milestones in order:
• 2025, Bihar: The ECI started SIR in Bihar, ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections [2][3].
• Phase II, Oct 2025 – Apr 2026: Covered 9 States + 3 UTs [2].
• Late 2025: The ECI pushed the SIR schedule back by one week [4]. It also deployed Special Roll Observers in major States [5].
• May 2026: The Supreme Court upheld the ECI's power to conduct SIR, calling it "necessary for free and fair polls" [8].
• July 2026: Final rolls of 13 States/UTs showed a combined net drop of about 5.84 crore (58.4 million) electors compared with the rolls before revision [6].
• 2026, Phase III: This phase includes Delhi. Its final roll was due on 19 October 2026, after claims and objections were settled by 15 October [9].

• 27 Oct 2026: Karnataka's final roll was published [1].

• Earlier practice: The roll is normally updated through routine summary revisions. An "intensive" revision rebuilds the roll more thoroughly. The legal basis for special revisions is Section 21(3) of RPA 1950 [8].

4. Core Static Facts

Item	Fact
Body conducting SIR	Election Commission of India (ECI) [2]
Constitutional basis	Article 324: superintendence, direction and control of elections [8]
Statutory basis	Section 21(3), RPA 1950: special revision of rolls [8]
Field supervision	Special Roll Observers deployed by the ECI [5]
Population data used	2020 Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, from the National Commission on Population [1]
Karnataka projected population (1 Mar 2026)	~6.89 crore [1]
Karnataka projected 18+ population	~5.19 crore [1]
Karnataka final roll (excl. Service Electors)	4,54,55,689 [1]
Possibly missing electors	~64.5 lakh, of which 38.41 lakh (59.5%) are aged 18–29 [1]
E-to-P ratio given by the Chief Electoral Officer	66.11. This is electors divided by the total population, including under-18s [1]
Net drop in electors, 13 States/UTs	~58.4 million [6]
Phase II coverage	9 States + 3 UTs, Oct 2025 – Apr 2026 [2]

• Elector-to-Population (E-to-P) ratio: The number of electors on the roll divided by the population. If the denominator is the whole population, the ratio can never reach 100, because children are included. The right benchmark is the adult share of the population. For Karnataka, 5.19 ÷ 6.89 gives about 75.3 (my calculation from [1]), well above the reported 66.11.
• Service Electors: Members of the armed forces and similar groups, counted separately. The 4.55 crore figure leaves them out [1].

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Legal / Constitutional

• The Supreme Court held that the ECI's power to run SIR comes from Article 324 together with Section 21(3) of RPA 1950 [8].
• Petitioners are challenging an extra declaration form used in SIR. The ECI says it is a separate document and did not change Form 6, the form for new enrolment [11].
• The case is still being heard. The Supreme Court gave petitioners 10 days to reply to the ECI's affidavit [7].

Social / Equity

• Most of the gap is among 18–29-year-olds (38.41 lakh) [1]. Young people, migrants and first-time voters have the most trouble with documents and home verification.
• A net drop of 58.4 million across 13 States/UTs [6] raises a key question: is the revision removing ineligible entries, or is it excluding genuine voters?

Governance / Transparency

• The ECI refused to disclose the name and version of the software used in SIR, citing commercial confidence and IPR. This conflicts with the demand for algorithmic accountability in electoral administration [10].
• Different population benchmarks give very different pictures. The Chief Electoral Officer's 66.11 uses total population. The Hindu's adult-population benchmark shows a gap of about 64.5 lakh [1].

Administrative

• Deadlines have been extended more than once: the national schedule by one week [4], and Delhi's rolls to 19 October [9]. These point to limited field capacity.
• The ECI used Special Roll Observers [5] and calls its approach a phased process "with multiple safeguards" [2].

Ethical / Democratic

• Free and fair elections need rolls that are both accurate (no duplicates or ghost voters) and inclusive (every eligible citizen listed). The Supreme Court described SIR as "necessary for free and fair polls" [8].

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• Oct 2025 – Apr 2026: SIR Phase II in 9 States + 3 UTs [2].
• Late 2025: National SIR schedule extended by one week [4]. Special Roll Observers deployed [5].
• May 2026: Supreme Court upheld the ECI's power to conduct SIR [8].
• July 2026: State-wise analysis showed a net drop of about 58.4 million electors across 13 States/UTs [6]. Delhi's SIR was extended, with final rolls due on 19 October [9].
• Oct 2026: The ECI withheld software details [10]. It told the Supreme Court that the SIR declaration did not change Form 6 [11]. The Supreme Court gave petitioners 10 days to reply [7].
• 27 Oct 2026: Karnataka's final roll published with 4,54,55,689 electors. About 64.5 lakh are possibly missing [1].

7. Prelims Hooks

• The ECI's power to conduct SIR comes from Article 324 and Section 21(3) of RPA 1950 [8].
• Bihar was the first State where SIR was carried out, ahead of its 2025 Assembly elections [2][3].
• SIR Phase II covered 9 States and 3 UTs from Oct 2025 to Apr 2026 [2].
• The Supreme Court upheld the ECI's SIR power in May 2026 [8].
• The E-to-P ratio is electors divided by population. If total population is used, under-18s are included [1].
• Karnataka's post-SIR E-to-P ratio is 66.11, as given by the Chief Electoral Officer's office [1].
• Population projections used: the Technical Group on Population Projections (2020 report), constituted by the National Commission on Population [1].
• Karnataka's projected population on 1 March 2026 is about 6.89 crore, of which about 5.19 crore are 18+ [1].
• Karnataka's final roll: 4,54,55,689 electors, excluding Service Electors [1].
• About 59.5% of Karnataka's possibly missing electors are aged 18–29 [1].
• Form 6 is the enrolment form. The ECI says the SIR declaration is a separate document [11].
• The ECI deployed Special Roll Observers for SIR [5].

8. Why 64.5 Lakh Is an Estimate, Not a Headcount

• The gap compares a real list with a forecast
• The final roll of 4,54,55,689 is an actual count of names [1].
• The 5.19 crore adult population is a projection (a forecast). It comes from the 2020 Technical Group report, not from a fresh Census [1].

• If the forecast is too high or too low, the 'missing' figure moves with it. So 64.5 lakh is the size of the gap, not a list of 64.5 lakh named people.

• 'Missing' is not the same as 'deleted'

• Some of the gap is people SIR removed. Some is young people who were never enrolled in the first place.
• The age-wise data shows 38.41 lakh of the gap are aged 18–29 [1]. Many of them may have never filled Form 6 at all.

• So the number mixes two problems: wrongful removal, and low enrolment of new voters. Each needs a different fix.

• Even so, the gap is too big to dismiss

• In Bihar, the draft roll dropped about 65 lakh names. After claims were settled, the net fall was still about 47 lakh, from 7.89 crore to 7.42 crore [12].
• So claims and appeals win back only part of what is lost at the draft stage. Each State's final roll still ends up much smaller.

9. How SIR Shifts the Burden of Proof onto the Voter

• Under routine revision, the State finds the voter. Under SIR, the voter must prove eligibility
• SIR asks electors to submit an enumeration form, plus a separate declaration to show they are eligible [11].
• People who miss the form deadline must reapply through Form 6 with the declaration during claims and objections [13].

• Anyone who moves often, or has weak paperwork, is more likely to drop out. That means students, migrant workers and first-time voters, the same 18–29 group behind most of Karnataka's gap [1].

• The online system made the declaration compulsory in practice

• The ECI says the declaration is separate and did not change Form 6 [11].
• But petitioners complained that the online portal would not accept Form 6 until the declaration was answered, even though it was not marked mandatory [14].
• The Supreme Court later said it had neither approved nor rejected the revised Form 6 [15].

• What the software does decides who gets on the roll. This is why the ECI's refusal to name the software matters [10].

• The document list left out the ID most people have

• Aadhaar was not among the ECI's original 11 documents for Bihar's SIR [16].
• The Supreme Court had to order the ECI to accept it [16]. Until then, the most widely held ID could not be used to prove identity.

10. The Best Case for SIR — and Its Limits

• The strongest argument for SIR
• Rolls fill up with dead voters, people who have moved away, and duplicate entries. Routine summary revision only adds and corrects names. It rarely removes them properly.
• A bloated roll makes fake voting (impersonation) easier. It also makes turnout look lower than it really is.
• The Supreme Court accepted this. It called SIR "necessary for free and fair polls" [8].

• So some of the 5.84 crore net drop across 13 States/UTs is likely genuine cleaning [6].

• What this argument gets right

• A smaller roll is not proof of exclusion by itself. Removing dead and shifted voters is a lawful duty under Section 21(3) of RPA 1950 [8].

• Where it stops working

• The same judgment said the ECI's power is limited. Any step beyond the statutory process must have a "rational nexus" (a clear, logical link) to SIR's goal [17].
• The court ordered that people wrongly deleted for citizenship reasons go to the competent authority. People wrongly deleted as 'absent' while still living in the State can approach election officials [17]. That shows the court expected wrong deletions to happen.
• Cleaning the roll does not explain why the gap is concentrated among 18–29-year-olds [1]. Young people are the least likely to be dead or duplicated. They are the most likely to be new and mobile.

11. What the ECI and Courts Should Do Next

• ECI: publish deletions with reasons, in every State
• In Bihar, the Supreme Court ordered the ECI to publish the list of deleted voters [18].

• Doing the same everywhere, with the reason for each deletion (dead, shifted, duplicate), would let a wrongly removed voter find their name and appeal.

• ECI: run the youth enrolment drive seriously and measure it

• The ECI has told States to hold a special drive after SIR for left-out and first-time/young electors. BLOs (Booth Level Officers) are to fill Form 6 during house visits [19].
• The law already lets young people enrol on four qualifying dates a year, not just 1 January [20].

• The drive's success should be measured by how much the 18–29 gap shrinks, State by State.

• Chief Electoral Officers: report the E-to-P ratio against the adult population

• Karnataka's 66.11 uses total population, so it hides the shortfall [1].

• An age-wise, adult-based ratio would show the gap directly. The Hindu's method can be repeated by any State.

• ECI: accept Aadhaar everywhere, and disclose the software

• The Bihar order on Aadhaar [16] should apply as standard in every phase.
• The software that blocks or accepts forms should be open to independent audit, not hidden as a 'trade secret' [10].

12. Anchors for Answers

• Data: Karnataka's post-SIR roll is ~64.5 lakh short of the projected adult population; 38.41 lakh (59.5%) of the gap is aged 18–29 [1]
• Data: Bihar SIR: draft dropped ~65 lakh names; final net fall ~47 lakh (7.89 crore → 7.42 crore) [12]
• Data: Net drop of ~5.84 crore electors across 13 States/UTs after SIR [6]
• Report/Committee: Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, 2020 (National Commission on Population) [1]
• Law/Case: Article 324 + Section 21(3), RPA 1950; Supreme Court (May 2026) upheld SIR but said the power is limited and departures need a "rational nexus" [8][17]
• Law/Case: Supreme Court order (Aug 2025) to accept Aadhaar in Bihar's SIR [16], and to publish the list of deleted voters [18]
• Scheme: Four qualifying dates a year for enrolling young voters [20]; ECI's post-SIR special drive for left-out and first-time electors [19]

13. Mains Relevance

• GS-II:
• Salient features of the RPA
• Appointment, powers and functions of constitutional bodies (the ECI)

• Separation of powers and judicial review

• GS-IV (secondary): Transparency and accountability in public institutions.

• Possible questions: 1. Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls pits roll purity against inclusion. Examine with reference to recent State-level outcomes. (250 words) 2. Discuss the constitutional and statutory basis of the Election Commission's power to conduct intensive revision of rolls, and the safeguards needed to prevent the disenfranchisement of young and migrant voters. 3. Is the Elector-to-Population ratio an adequate measure of electoral roll health? Critically analyse.

14. Related Topics to Study Next

• Article 324 and ECI independence: The source of the ECI's plenary powers over elections.
• RPA 1950 vs RPA 1951: The 1950 Act covers rolls and seat allocation. The 1951 Act covers the conduct of elections and disputes.
• Universal adult franchise (Article 326): The constitutional right that inclusive rolls protect.
• Census and population projections: The denominators behind E-to-P and gender-ratio checks on rolls.
• Delimitation: Built on population data and electoral geography, and currently in the news.
• Aadhaar–voter ID linkage and data protection: Overlaps with SIR's verification and software transparency debates.
• Electoral reforms (Law Commission, ECI proposals): Long-running debates on roll accuracy.
• Migrant and young voter participation: The 18–29 gap shows these groups are hardest to keep on the rolls.

15. NCERT Concepts to Revise

• Special Intensive Revision (Polity): This is the exercise the whole article is about, which rebuilds rolls and may drop eligible voters.
• Electoral roll (Polity): The 64.5 lakh gap is about who is missing from this list of eligible voters.
• Representation of the People Act 1950 (Polity): Section 21(3) of this Act is the legal basis for special revision of rolls.
• Election Commission of India (Polity): The ECI runs SIR under Article 324 and is defending it in the Supreme Court.
• Universal adult franchise (Polity): Missing young voters raise the question of every adult's right to vote under Article 326.
• Free and fair elections (Polity): Accurate and inclusive rolls are needed for free and fair polls, as the Supreme Court said.

16. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• E-to-P ratio vs registration rate: An E-to-P of 66.11 does not mean 34% of adults are missing. The denominator includes under-18s. Compare it with the adult share (about 75% in Karnataka) [1].
• Wrong Act: Roll revision falls under RPA 1950 (Section 21), not RPA 1951 [8].
• Wrong body: The National Commission on Population constituted the Technical Group. It is not the Registrar General/Census office, and not the ECI [1].
• Wrong phase: Bihar was the first State, before Phase II. Phase II covered 9 States + 3 UTs, and Delhi falls in Phase III [2][9].
• Missing denominator: Karnataka's 4.55 crore figure excludes Service Electors [1].