UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — IMD revises its forecast for the onset of monsoon over Kerala to ‘around June 4’

Q1. As per the India Meteorological Department's operational criteria, how many designated stations across Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka are monitored for declaring the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala?

  • A. 10
  • B. 12
  • C. 14
  • D. 16

Q2. In the context of the IMD's monsoon onset criterion, what does the parameter 'Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) below 200 W/m² over the box 5°N–10°N, 70°E–75°E' essentially indicate?

  • A. The strength of low-level westerly winds crossing the equator over the Arabian Sea
  • B. The presence of deep, persistent cloud cover over the southeast Arabian Sea, signalling organised convection
  • C. The sea-surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean linked to ENSO
  • D. The vertical wind shear between 850 hPa and 200 hPa over peninsular India

Q3. Which Union Ministry is the parent administrative ministry of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the nodal agency that issues the operational forecast for the southwest monsoon's onset over Kerala?

  • A. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
  • B. Ministry of Science and Technology
  • C. Ministry of Earth Sciences
  • D. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare

Q4. With reference to the India Meteorological Department's 2026 operational forecast for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala as compared with its earlier operational forecasts, consider the following statements: 1. IMD's custom statistical model for issuing a date-specific Kerala onset forecast has been operational since 2005. 2. The 2026 revision (from 'May 26' to 'around June 4') marked the first miss of the model's ±4-day error window since 2015. 3. The normal date of onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, as used by IMD, is June 1. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. IMD's custom statistical model for issuing a date-specific Kerala onset forecast has been operational since 2005.
  2. The 2026 revision (from 'May 26' to 'around June 4') marked the first miss of the model's ±4-day error window since 2015.
  3. The normal date of onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, as used by IMD, is June 1.
  • A. 1 and 2 only
  • B. 2 and 3 only
  • C. 1 and 3 only
  • D. 1, 2 and 3