UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — What a ‘super’ El Niño might mean for India’s monsoon

Q1. In the context of ENSO monitoring, the term 'super El Niño' (or 'very strong El Niño') refers to which one of the following conditions?

  • A. A sustained sea-surface temperature anomaly of +0.5°C or more in the Niño 3.4 region
  • B. A sustained sea-surface temperature anomaly of +1.0°C or more in the Niño 1+2 region
  • C. A sustained sea-surface temperature anomaly of +2.0°C or more in the Niño 3.4 region
  • D. A sustained sea-surface temperature anomaly of +3.0°C or more across the entire equatorial Pacific basin

Q2. With reference to El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), consider the following statements: 1. El Niño refers to the anomalous warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, whereas La Niña refers to the anomalous cooling of the same region. 2. The Indian Ocean Dipole is measured as the sea-surface temperature gradient between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean, and is independent of the ENSO cycle in the Pacific. 3. A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole tends to suppress the Indian summer monsoon, while a negative phase tends to enhance it. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. El Niño refers to the anomalous warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, whereas La Niña refers to the anomalous cooling of the same region.
  2. The Indian Ocean Dipole is measured as the sea-surface temperature gradient between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean, and is independent of the ENSO cycle in the Pacific.
  3. A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole tends to suppress the Indian summer monsoon, while a negative phase tends to enhance it.
  • A. 1 and 2 only
  • B. 1 only
  • C. 2 and 3 only
  • D. 1, 2 and 3

Q3. Which one of the following regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is treated as the PRIMARY reference area whose sea-surface temperature anomaly is used by NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to officially classify the strength of an El Niño event?

  • A. Niño 1+2 region
  • B. Niño 3 region
  • C. Niño 3.4 region
  • D. Niño 4 region

Q4. In its revised Long Range Forecast issued in late May 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) pegged the 2026 Southwest Monsoon rainfall at what percentage of the Long Period Average (LPA)?

  • A. 96% of LPA
  • B. 90% of LPA
  • C. 86% of LPA
  • D. 100% of LPA

Q5. Within the Government of India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which issues the official Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon, functions under which one of the following ministries?

  • A. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
  • B. Ministry of Science and Technology
  • C. Ministry of Earth Sciences
  • D. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare
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