UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — Will El Niño weaken India’s economy?

Q1. The onset of an El Niño event is primarily defined by anomalous warming of sea-surface temperatures in which one of the following ocean regions?

  • A. Western equatorial Pacific Ocean, near Indonesia
  • B. Central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
  • C. Western equatorial Indian Ocean, off East Africa
  • D. Equatorial eastern Atlantic Ocean, in the Gulf of Guinea

Q2. According to analyses of the 1951–2022 record, approximately what proportion of El Niño years in this period recorded below-average southwest monsoon rainfall over India?

  • A. About 40 per cent
  • B. About 50 per cent
  • C. About 60 per cent
  • D. About 75 per cent

Q3. Which one of the following international organisations warned that India is among the countries most exposed as El Niño threatens rainfed crops, flagging a rising agricultural drought risk?

  • A. World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
  • B. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
  • C. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
  • D. World Health Organization (WHO)

Q4. In its long-range forecast issued on 29 May 2026, the IMD projected the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall at exactly what percentage of the Long Period Average?

  • A. 86 per cent
  • B. 90 per cent
  • C. 94 per cent
  • D. 96 per cent

Q5. In the context of ENSO monitoring, the term 'super El Niño' most precisely refers to an event in which:

  • A. the Oceanic Niño Index rises well beyond +2°C above the long-term average
  • B. the Oceanic Niño Index first crosses the +0.5°C threshold for declaration
  • C. El Niño conditions persist for two or more consecutive calendar years
  • D. El Niño co-occurs with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the same season

Q6. When NOAA declared the onset of El Niño in June 2026, what did it state as the approximate probability that the event would persist into early 2027?

  • A. 63 per cent
  • B. 82 per cent
  • C. 90 per cent
  • D. 96 per cent

Q7. The official estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) from agriculture — used to derive the sector's roughly 14–16 per cent share of India's GDP — are compiled and released by which one of the following?

  • A. Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
  • B. NITI Aayog
  • C. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)
  • D. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare

Q8. The flexible inflation-targeting framework under which the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee responds to food-price shocks from a weak monsoon is mandated by an amendment to which one of the following statutes?

  • A. The Banking Regulation Act, 1949
  • B. The Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934
  • C. The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003
  • D. The Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999

Q9. In the context of the government's response to the 2026 monsoon deficit, the term 'kharif crops' most precisely refers to crops that are:

  • A. sown with the onset of the southwest monsoon (around June–July) and harvested in autumn
  • B. sown in winter (around October–November) and harvested in spring
  • C. grown throughout the year under fully assured irrigation regardless of the monsoon
  • D. cultivated only in the summer months between the rabi harvest and the monsoon's arrival