UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — ‘El-Nino, below normal monsoon pose risks to growth in FY27’

Q1. With reference to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, consider the following statements: 1. ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 2. El Niño refers to the cooling phase of the ENSO cycle. 3. El Niño is generally associated with a weakening of the easterly trade winds over the tropical Pacific. 4. ENSO events recur irregularly, typically at intervals of about two to seven years. Which of the statements given above are correctly identified?

  1. ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  2. El Niño refers to the cooling phase of the ENSO cycle.
  3. El Niño is generally associated with a weakening of the easterly trade winds over the tropical Pacific.
  4. ENSO events recur irregularly, typically at intervals of about two to seven years.
  • A. 1, 2 and 3
  • B. 1, 3 and 4
  • C. 2 and 4 only
  • D. 1, 2 and 4

Q2. Which one of the following is the nodal agency that operationally forecasts the Indian southwest monsoon and monitors El Niño/ENSO conditions for India?

  • A. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, under the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
  • B. India Meteorological Department, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences
  • C. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, under the Ministry of Science and Technology
  • D. Central Water Commission, under the Ministry of Jal Shakti

Q3. Which one of the following is regarded as the primary (leading) driver of the interannual variability of the all-India summer monsoon rainfall?

  • A. The Madden-Julian Oscillation
  • B. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
  • C. The North Atlantic Oscillation
  • D. Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation

Q4. Of the 16 El Niño years recorded since 1950, how many are estimated to have coincided with below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall?

  • A. 4
  • B. 7
  • C. 11
  • D. 16

Q5. With reference to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) classification of all-India seasonal monsoon rainfall as a percentage of the Long Period Average (LPA), consider the following statements: 1. Rainfall in the range of 90-96% of LPA is classified as 'below normal', whereas 96-104% of LPA is classified as 'normal'. 2. Rainfall below 90% of LPA is classified as 'deficient'. 3. Rainfall exceeding 110% of LPA is classified as 'above normal'. Which of the statements given above are correct?

  1. Rainfall in the range of 90-96% of LPA is classified as 'below normal', whereas 96-104% of LPA is classified as 'normal'.
  2. Rainfall below 90% of LPA is classified as 'deficient'.
  3. Rainfall exceeding 110% of LPA is classified as 'above normal'.
  • A. 1 and 2 only
  • B. 2 and 3 only
  • C. 1 and 3 only
  • D. 1, 2 and 3

Q6. In the IMD's five-fold classification of all-India seasonal monsoon rainfall, which one of the following categories denotes the most severe rainfall shortfall?

  • A. Below Normal
  • B. Deficient
  • C. Scanty
  • D. Subdued

Q7. In its projection cited in the context of FY27, the Reserve Bank of India pegged India's real GDP growth for 2026-27 (FY27) at which one of the following rates?

  • A. 6.6%
  • B. 6.9%
  • C. 7.2%
  • D. 7.6%

Q8. With reference to the El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO and their bearing on the Indian monsoon, consider the following statements: 1. La Niña is the cool phase of ENSO. 2. La Niña conditions are generally associated with normal-to-above-normal Indian southwest monsoon rainfall. 3. During El Niño, the weakened Pacific trade winds dampen the moisture-laden monsoon winds over India, reducing rainfall. 4. Every El Niño year since 1950 has, without exception, produced drought in India. Which of the statements given above are correctly identified?

  1. La Niña is the cool phase of ENSO.
  2. La Niña conditions are generally associated with normal-to-above-normal Indian southwest monsoon rainfall.
  3. During El Niño, the weakened Pacific trade winds dampen the moisture-laden monsoon winds over India, reducing rainfall.
  4. Every El Niño year since 1950 has, without exception, produced drought in India.
  • A. 1, 2 and 3
  • B. 2, 3 and 4
  • C. 1 and 4 only
  • D. 1, 2, 3 and 4

Q9. During a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is generally:

  • A. invariably suppressed, always producing a deficient monsoon
  • B. enhanced/supported, acting as an offsetting factor against El Niño
  • C. left entirely unaffected under all circumstances
  • D. delayed in onset but always deficient in total quantum

Q10. In the context of IMD monsoon forecasts, the term 'Long Period Average (LPA)' of rainfall most precisely refers to which one of the following?

  • A. The average seasonal rainfall for a region computed over a long climatological reference period (about 30-50 years), used as the benchmark
  • B. The maximum rainfall recorded over the region in any single monsoon season on record
  • C. The rainfall target that the IMD forecasts for the forthcoming monsoon season
  • D. The average rainfall of only the immediately preceding ten monsoon seasons

Q11. In HDFC Bank's FY26 annual report, its MD & CEO flagged how many distinct global risks to the growth-and-inflation outlook — namely West Asia conflict fallout, monetary tightening by major central banks, AI-related capital flow volatility, and tariff risks?

  • A. Two
  • B. Three
  • C. Four
  • D. Five