UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — Monsoon sets in over Kerala three days late amid concerns over El Niño impact
Q1. The Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon and the official declaration of its onset over Kerala are operationally issued by the India Meteorological Department, which functions under which one of the following Union Ministries?
- A. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
- B. Ministry of Earth Sciences
- C. Ministry of Science and Technology
- D. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare
Q2. In the IMD's Updated Long Range Forecast (May 2026) for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon, which one of the following homogeneous regions is the only one projected to receive 'normal' seasonal rainfall (94–106% of LPA)?
- A. Northwest India
- B. Central India
- C. South Peninsular India
- D. Northeast India
Q3. With reference to the IMD's formal criteria for declaring the onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala, consider the following:
1. At least 60% of the 14 designated stations in Kerala and adjoining areas report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more on two consecutive days.
2. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) over the region falls below 200 W/m².
3. Lower tropospheric easterlies are established over the southeast Arabian Sea.
4. Convective cloudiness is observed over the southeast Arabian Sea.
Which of the above is/are correctly identified?
- At least 60% of the 14 designated stations in Kerala and adjoining areas report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more on two consecutive days.
- Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) over the region falls below 200 W/m².
- Lower tropospheric easterlies are established over the southeast Arabian Sea.
- Convective cloudiness is observed over the southeast Arabian Sea.
- A. 1, 2 and 3 only
- B. 1, 2 and 4 only
- C. 2, 3 and 4 only
- D. 1, 2, 3 and 4
Q4. With reference to the 2026 Southwest Monsoon as compared to the 2025 Southwest Monsoon, consider the following statements:
1. While the 2025 IMD Long Range Forecast projected 'above-normal' seasonal rainfall, the 2026 LRF pegs the season at 90% of the LPA, i.e. 'below normal'.
2. Unlike 2025, the 2026 season is being entered under a strengthening El Niño phase, with the WMO assigning roughly an 80% probability of El Niño conditions through July–August 2026.
3. The 2026 monsoon set in over Kerala three days earlier than the normal onset date of 1 June.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- While the 2025 IMD Long Range Forecast projected 'above-normal' seasonal rainfall, the 2026 LRF pegs the season at 90% of the LPA, i.e. 'below normal'.
- Unlike 2025, the 2026 season is being entered under a strengthening El Niño phase, with the WMO assigning roughly an 80% probability of El Niño conditions through July–August 2026.
- The 2026 monsoon set in over Kerala three days earlier than the normal onset date of 1 June.
- A. 1 and 2 only
- B. 2 and 3 only
- C. 1 and 3 only
- D. 1, 2 and 3
Q5. According to IMD records cited in the context of the 2026 monsoon onset, out of the 16 El Niño years identified since 1950, how many produced below-normal Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR)?