UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — Scientists rule out worst-case climate scenario, with caution

Q1. How many global emissions scenarios are included in the new ScenarioMIP framework designed for CMIP7 and the IPCC's Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), as published by van Vuuren et al. in 2026?

  • A. Four
  • B. Five
  • C. Seven
  • D. Nine

Q2. With reference to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) used in IPCC climate assessments, consider the following pairings of pathway and its storyline name: 1. SSP1 — Sustainability ('Taking the Green Road') 2. SSP2 — Middle of the Road 3. SSP3 — Inequality ('A Road Divided') 4. SSP5 — Fossil-fuelled Development ('Taking the Highway') Which of the above are correctly matched?

  1. SSP1 — Sustainability ('Taking the Green Road')
  2. SSP2 — Middle of the Road
  3. SSP3 — Inequality ('A Road Divided')
  4. SSP5 — Fossil-fuelled Development ('Taking the Highway')
  • A. 1 and 3 only
  • B. 2 and 4 only
  • C. 1, 2 and 4 only
  • D. 1, 3 and 4 only

Q3. Consider the following statements comparing the new CMIP7 emissions scenarios (van Vuuren et al., 2026) with the CMIP6 SSP–RCP scenarios used in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report: 1. The highest emissions scenario in the new set projects lower 21st-century global emissions than SSP5-8.5 of CMIP6. 2. The lowest emissions scenario in the new set keeps the projected global temperature change below 1.5°C, mirroring SSP1-1.9 of CMIP6. 3. The new framework comprises a larger number of headline scenarios than the SSP-based set used in AR6. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. The highest emissions scenario in the new set projects lower 21st-century global emissions than SSP5-8.5 of CMIP6.
  2. The lowest emissions scenario in the new set keeps the projected global temperature change below 1.5°C, mirroring SSP1-1.9 of CMIP6.
  3. The new framework comprises a larger number of headline scenarios than the SSP-based set used in AR6.
  • A. 1 only
  • B. 1 and 3 only
  • C. 2 and 3 only
  • D. 1, 2 and 3

Q4. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), including the now-retired RCP8.5, were first introduced as the standard emissions-scenario framework in which IPCC Assessment Report?

  • A. Third Assessment Report (2001)
  • B. Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
  • C. Fifth Assessment Report (2013-14)
  • D. Sixth Assessment Report (2021)