UPSC Prelims Practice Questions — Super El Niño to add 15,800 heat deaths in India: report

Q1. Consider the following statements comparing the strength classes of El Niño events: 1. On the Oceanic Niño Index scale, events exceeding 1.5°C are classed as 'strong', while those exceeding 2°C are classed as 'very strong'. 2. In 2026 the Niño 3.4 anomaly averaged about 1.5°C over May–July and rose to about 2°C by July. 3. Between the 1876–78 event and the 1982–83 event, no other event of 'super El Niño' intensity was recorded. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. On the Oceanic Niño Index scale, events exceeding 1.5°C are classed as 'strong', while those exceeding 2°C are classed as 'very strong'.
  2. In 2026 the Niño 3.4 anomaly averaged about 1.5°C over May–July and rose to about 2°C by July.
  3. Between the 1876–78 event and the 1982–83 event, no other event of 'super El Niño' intensity was recorded.
  • A. 1 and 2 only
  • B. 2 and 3 only
  • C. 1 and 3 only
  • D. 1, 2 and 3

Q2. In its September 2026 update, the World Meteorological Organization characterised the developing El Niño as which one of the following?

  • A. The strongest El Niño since 1888–89, the only such event recorded between 1876–78 and 1982–83
  • B. The strongest El Niño in the past four decades, the period over which WMO has used its current set of indices
  • C. The strongest El Niño since the 1876–78 event, which remains the strongest in the instrumental record
  • D. The strongest El Niño since 1950, the year from which continuous Niño 3.4 records are maintained

Q3. With reference to the India Meteorological Department's classification of all-India southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall, consider the following categories and their ranges as a percentage of the Long Period Average: 1. Deficient — less than 90 per cent of LPA 2. Below Normal — 90 to 95 per cent of LPA 3. Normal — 96 to 104 per cent of LPA 4. Above Normal — 105 to 115 per cent of LPA Which of the above is/are correctly identified?

  1. Deficient — less than 90 per cent of LPA
  2. Below Normal — 90 to 95 per cent of LPA
  3. Normal — 96 to 104 per cent of LPA
  4. Above Normal — 105 to 115 per cent of LPA
  • A. 1, 2 and 3
  • B. 2 and 4
  • C. 1 and 4
  • D. 3 and 4

Q4. As stated in the India Meteorological Department's 2026 southwest monsoon forecast briefing, roughly how many out of every ten farmers in India depend entirely on monsoon rainfall for kharif cultivation?

  • A. Four out of every ten farmers
  • B. Five out of every ten farmers
  • C. Six out of every ten farmers
  • D. Eight out of every ten farmers

Q5. Consider the following descriptions of large-scale climate drivers relevant to the Indian monsoon: 1. El Niño Southern Oscillation — a coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon involving warming or cooling of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. 2. Indian Ocean Dipole — in its positive phase it invariably cancels the entire rainfall suppression caused by El Niño over India. 3. Eurasian snow cover — one of the predictors used by IMD alongside ENSO and the IOD in its seasonal monsoon outlook. 4. Southern Oscillation — the atmospheric component of ENSO, whose strength is measured from the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. El Niño Southern Oscillation — a coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon involving warming or cooling of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  2. Indian Ocean Dipole — in its positive phase it invariably cancels the entire rainfall suppression caused by El Niño over India.
  3. Eurasian snow cover — one of the predictors used by IMD alongside ENSO and the IOD in its seasonal monsoon outlook.
  4. Southern Oscillation — the atmospheric component of ENSO, whose strength is measured from the surface pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.
  • A. 1 and 2
  • B. 1, 3 and 4
  • C. 2 and 4
  • D. 1, 2 and 3

Q6. A 'positive phase' of the Indian Ocean Dipole denotes which one of the following sea-surface temperature configurations?

  • A. Warmer-than-normal waters in the eastern Indian Ocean off Indonesia, with cooler-than-normal waters off East Africa
  • B. Warming of the entire Indian Ocean basin above normal, with no east–west temperature gradient whatsoever
  • C. Cooling of the whole Indian Ocean basin below normal, necessarily accompanied by a complete failure of the monsoon
  • D. Warmer-than-normal waters in the western Indian Ocean off East Africa, with cooler-than-normal waters off Indonesia

Q7. In the Climate Impact Lab's September 2026 projections on the developing El Niño, how many additional heat deaths are estimated for the Sahel belt?

  • A. About 13,300 additional heat deaths
  • B. About 66,800 additional heat deaths
  • C. About 19,400 additional heat deaths
  • D. About 239,000 additional heat deaths

Q8. With reference to the Climate Impact Lab's September 2026 report on the developing El Niño, consider the following statements: 1. It estimates about 15,800 additional heat deaths in India between September 2026 and February 2027. 2. The Indian estimate is measured against the average of the same months over the period 1996–2025. 3. Its global projection is 451,000 additional heat deaths over the first six months of the event, of which 239,000 fall in September 2026–February 2027. 4. It concludes that every one of the projected deaths is attributable solely to anthropogenic climate change and not at all to natural El Niño variability. Which of the statements given above is/are NOT correct?

  1. It estimates about 15,800 additional heat deaths in India between September 2026 and February 2027.
  2. The Indian estimate is measured against the average of the same months over the period 1996–2025.
  3. Its global projection is 451,000 additional heat deaths over the first six months of the event, of which 239,000 fall in September 2026–February 2027.
  4. It concludes that every one of the projected deaths is attributable solely to anthropogenic climate change and not at all to natural El Niño variability.
  • A. 1 and 2
  • B. 3 only
  • C. 4 only
  • D. 2 and 4

Q9. The National Action Plan on Heat Related Illnesses, first issued in 2021, was drawn up under which one of the following bodies?

  • A. The National Disaster Management Authority under the Union Ministry of Home Affairs
  • B. The India Meteorological Department under the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences
  • C. The National Centre for Disease Control under the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare
  • D. The National Institute of Disaster Management under the Union Ministry of Home Affairs

Q10. The Central Electricity Authority classifies a thermal power plant's coal stock as 'critical' under which one of the following conditions?

  • A. The stock has fallen to 25 per cent or less of the normative requirement, or suffices for fewer than three days of generation
  • B. The stock has fallen to 50 per cent or less of the normative requirement, or suffices for fewer than seven days of generation
  • C. The stock has fallen to 25 per cent or less of the normative requirement, or suffices for fewer than ten days of generation
  • D. The stock has fallen below the normative requirement on any single day of the month, irrespective of days of generation

Q11. When WMO reports that the planet has already warmed by about 1.4°C, the 'pre-industrial' baseline it measures against is the average of which period?

  • A. 1880 to 1920
  • B. 1850 to 1900
  • C. 1951 to 1980
  • D. 1971 to 2000

Q12. Consider the following statements regarding India's disaster preparedness and early-warning framework: 1. Mission Mausam seeks to make India a 'weather-ready and climate-smart' nation by strengthening observation networks, prediction models and last-mile dissemination. 2. Heat wave is one of the disasters notified for assistance from the State Disaster Response Fund and the National Disaster Response Fund. 3. The Multi-Hazard Early Warning Decision Support System is a digital forecasting platform of the India Meteorological Department developed under Mission Mausam. 4. The Disaster Management (Amendment) Act, 2025 mandates the creation of a National Disaster Database. Which of the statements given above is/are NOT correct?

  1. Mission Mausam seeks to make India a 'weather-ready and climate-smart' nation by strengthening observation networks, prediction models and last-mile dissemination.
  2. Heat wave is one of the disasters notified for assistance from the State Disaster Response Fund and the National Disaster Response Fund.
  3. The Multi-Hazard Early Warning Decision Support System is a digital forecasting platform of the India Meteorological Department developed under Mission Mausam.
  4. The Disaster Management (Amendment) Act, 2025 mandates the creation of a National Disaster Database.
  • A. 1 and 3
  • B. 2 only
  • C. 3 and 4
  • D. 1, 2 and 4