29 January 2026·PIB

INDIA’S EXTERNAL PERFORMANCE DEMONSTRATES RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL SHOCKS: ECONOMIC SURVEY 2025-26

In this note

1. At a Glance

Economic Survey 2025-26, tabled by FM Nirmala Sitharaman on 29 January 2026, dedicates a chapter to the external sector concluding India is resilient to global shocks [1][2].
India's share of global merchandise exports has nearly doubled from 1% (2005) to 1.8% (2024); share in commercial services exports more than doubled from 2% to 4.3% [1].
UNCTAD Trade & Development Report 2025 ranks India 3rd in the Global South for trade-partner diversification (index 3.2), after China and UAE [1].
High examinable value for GS-III (External Sector, Trade) and Prelims (Economic Survey factoids).

Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled in Parliament on 29 January 2026, ahead of Union Budget FY27 [1].
Resilience claim is set against US tariff actions: despite US tariffs, merchandise exports grew 2.4% (Apr–Dec 2025) and services 6.5% [2].
Q1, Q2 and Q3 of FY26 each recorded the highest-ever exports for the respective quarters [1].

Pre-1991: closed economy; exports < 1% of world trade.
2005: India's share of world merchandise exports = 1% [1].
2014–24: Push via Make in India, PLI (2020), FTP 2023, Districts as Export Hubs.
FY25: Services exports hit record USD 387.5 bn (+13.6% YoY); total exports USD 825.3 bn [1][2].
FY26 (H1): Total exports USD 418.5 bn [2].

Document: Economic Survey 2025-26, Vol. authored by Chief Economic Adviser, Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance [1].
Tabled by: Union FM Nirmala Sitharaman, 29 Jan 2026 [1].
Forex Reserves: USD 701.4 billion (as on 16 Jan 2026); import cover ~11 months; covers >94% of external debt [1].
Merchandise export share (world): 1% (2005) → 1.8% (2024) [1].
Services export share (world): 2% (2005) → 4.3% (2024); India = 7th-largest services exporter globally [2].
Services exports FY25: USD 387.5 bn, +13.6% YoY [1].
Telecom instruments exports: +51.2% YoY in FY25 [1].
Gross FDI (Apr–Nov 2025): USD 64.7 bn; services sector = ~80.2% of FDI (FY23–FY25 avg) [2].
Current Account Deficit: 0.8% of GDP in H1 FY26 (vs 1.3% in H1 FY25) [2].
Services share in GVA: 56.4% (FAE FY26) — highest ever [2].
UNCTAD diversification index: India = 3.2; rank 3rd in Global South (after China, UAE) [1].

Economic

Twin engines: services exports (digitally delivered) + non-petroleum, non-gems & jewellery merchandise [2].
FDI inflows USD 64.7 bn (Apr–Nov 25) cushion BoP despite global FDI slump [2].
CAD at 0.8% of GDP indicates a sustainable external position [2].

Geopolitical / Strategic

Resilience tested by US tariffs; export growth maintained at 2.4% (Apr–Dec 25) [2].
Diversification (UNCTAD rank 3 in Global South) reduces concentration risk on any single market [1].
Reflects Survey's framing: from "Swadeshi to Strategic Resilience to Strategic Indispensability" [3].

Scientific / Technological

Telecom instruments exports +51.2% signal PLI-driven electronics & telecom manufacturing maturity [1].
Modern, tradable, digitally delivered services drive GVA share to 56.4% [2].

Administrative

Lead agencies: DGFT (Ministry of Commerce & Industry) for trade policy; RBI for forex and CAD; DPIIT for FDI [1].
FTP 2023 + Districts as Export Hubs scheme support diversification.

29 Jan 2026: Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled; external chapter released [1].
FY25: Services exports record USD 387.5 bn (+13.6%) [1].
FY25: Telecom instruments exports +51.2% YoY [1].
H1 FY26: Merchandise +2.4%, services +6.5% (despite US tariffs) [2].
16 Jan 2026: Forex reserves at USD 701.4 bn [1].
Apr–Nov 2025: Gross FDI USD 64.7 bn [2].
UNCTAD TDR 2025: India ranked 3rd in Global South in trade diversification [1].

Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled on 29 January 2026 by FM Nirmala Sitharaman [1].
India's global merchandise export share: 1.8% in 2024 (from 1% in 2005) [1].
India's global commercial services export share: 4.3% in 2024 (from 2% in 2005) [1].
India is the 7th-largest exporter of services in the world [2].
Services exports in FY25: USD 387.5 billion, growing 13.6% [1].
Telecom instruments exports grew by 51.2% YoY in FY25 [1].
Forex reserves on 16 Jan 2026: USD 701.4 billion; import cover ~11 months [1].
Forex reserves cover >94% of external debt [1].
CAD: 0.8% of GDP in H1 FY26 (vs 1.3% in H1 FY25) [2].
Gross FDI (Apr–Nov 2025): USD 64.7 billion [2].
UNCTAD Trade & Development Report 2025 ranked India 3rd in Global South diversification index (3.2), after China & UAE [1].
Services share in GVA: highest-ever 56.4% (FAE FY26) [2].
Q1, Q2, Q3 of FY26 each saw highest-ever exports for respective quarters [1].
Total exports FY25 = USD 825.3 bn; H1 FY26 = USD 418.5 bn [2].
Services sector = ~80.2% of FDI inflows (FY23–FY25 avg) [2].

GS-III: Indian Economy — Growth, Development, Employment; External Sector & BoP; Effects of Liberalisation.
GS-II: Effect of policies of developed countries (US tariffs) on India's interests.
Plausible questions: 1. "India's external sector has displayed resilience amid global shocks." Examine the structural factors underpinning this resilience with reference to Economic Survey 2025-26. 2. Critically evaluate the role of services exports and trade-partner diversification in insulating India from US tariff shocks. 3. Discuss how PLI-led manufacturing (e.g., telecom instruments) is reshaping India's merchandise export basket.

Survey author: Document released by DEA, MoF — not NITI Aayog (which releases different reports).
Forex cover: ~11 months import cover (not 9 or 12); covers >94% of external debt (not 100%).
Diversification rank: India is 3rd in Global South (not globally); ahead of all Global North countries on the index.
Services export share is 4.3% (commercial services 2024) — do not confuse with merchandise (1.8%).
Telecom instruments +51.2% is a sectoral merchandise stat, not total electronics exports.
CAD figure 0.8% of GDP is for H1 FY26 specifically, not full year.